Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Friday, November 07, 2008
Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families:Barack Obama and Joe Biden will enact a windfall profits tax on excessive oil company profits to give American families an immediate $1,000 emergency energy rebate to help families pay rising bills. This relief would be a down payment on the Obama-Biden long-term plan to provide middle-class families with at least $1,000 per year in permanent tax relief.
A tax of this proportion practically wipes out three quarters of the total profits of the U.S. energy sector - profits that go back into developing new energy reserves. The end result of this lunacy is higher energy prices and a crippled economy.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
"The road to hell is paved with good intentions."Gird yourself, investor.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Today on my way to lunch I passed a homeless guy with a sign that read "Vote Obama, I need the money." I laughed.
Once in the restaurant my server had on an "Obama 08" tie, again I laughed as he had given away his political preference--just imagine the coincidence.
When the bill came I decided not to tip the server and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed more in need--the homeless guy outside. The server angrily stormed from my sight.
I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him to thank the server inside as I've decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.
At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn, even though the actual recipient deserved money more.
I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.
Somebody wants to spread our wealth, traders. In the markets profits are NOT a dirty word. It is the result of hard work - something that is especially true in a tough bear market.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Last night's U.S. Presidential debate brought one to the foreground, where he belongs. Meet Joe the Plumber - a man that strives to be successful and loathes the thought of a society that will punish him for his success. Joe has a lot in common with traders and investors alike. The spectre of big government, of higher taxes, of wealth redistribution, kills the spirit of budding wealth creators like Joe as much as it drives the markets into the ground. God Bless Joe!
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
After the market's slide toward 5-year lows and perhaps threatening negative returns on the decade before all is said and done, investors are left looking for signs of complete capitulation. A broker friend tells me a key signal is post-work day alcohol consumption by brokers at their local watering hole. When the days are at their darkest expect the libations to flow freely. An even more telling signal is when branch managers start bringing in pizza and beer to the offices. In any case, according to this grizzled veteran, if either of these signals is flaring in your parts, it's time to check your gonads and buy, buy, buy.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Thursday, October 02, 2008
House Financial Services Committee hearing, Sept. 25, 2003:
Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.): I do think I do not want the same kind of focus on safety and soundness that we have in OCC [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] and OTS [Office of Thrift Supervision]. I want to roll the dice a little bit more in this situation towards subsidized housing. . . .
Seems Congress rolled snake eyes.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
The Stock Trends TSX Bull/Bear Ratio is now 0.3, with over 78% of stock in a bearish trend. Things have not been this grim for the TSX since the sad autumn days of 1998, a decade ago. Only 9% of stocks are Stock Trends Bullish. Clearly, the commodity bull market is no more...at least for now. The last quarter was particularly brutal for materials (down 29%) and energy (down 24%) stocks, the bread and butter of the TSX.
"GE announced that it has reached agreement to sell $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering to Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. The perpetual preferred stock has a dividend of 10% and is callable after three years at a 10% premium. In conjunction with this offering, Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to purchase $3 billion of common stock with a strike price of $22.25 per share, which is exercisable at any time for a five-year term.
Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett said, "GE is the symbol of American business to the world. I have been a friend and admirer of GE and its leaders for decades. They have strong global brands and businesses with which I am quite familiar. I am confident that GE will continue to be successful in the years to come."
This deal, as well as Buffett's earlier deal with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), is dependant on the Treasury bailout of the financial system. Nevertheless, investor confidence in these stocks is buoyed by the Oracle of Omaha's blessings. Trend traders, though, should stand clear. Both GE and GS are Stock Trends Bearish.
Market volatility is obviously heightened. Investors are totally wigged out. A measure of that volatility is the Volatility Index (VIX). It is now trading at 40, a level that approaches other seminal moments in the last 15 years - the market bottom of 2002, post-9/11, the LTCM collapse, and the Asian Currency Crisis. This is either a moment of great opportunity...or tragedy. We will see.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
Also dropping significantly was Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG). It dropped 12% to close at $385 - a price GOOG shareholder shave not seen in two years. However, GOOG has been Stock Trends Bearish for 29 weeks. The primary bear trend is solidly in play.
Another big name, Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), took a 14% shaving. After a big 32% drop last week RIMM became a Bearish Crossover (the 13-week moving average trend line penetrated below the 40-week moving average trend line) in the current Stock Trends report.
The NASDAQ Composite Index failed to move through resistance at the primary trend line during the summer, a failure that showed the tech sector's vulnerability to the current economic and credit conditions. Today's drop by the index below 2,000 spells a continued move south in the final quarter of 2008.
Monday, September 22, 2008
The dramatic shift in the market that has resulted from this prospective rehabilitation (socialization) of the credit market has traders embracing the short-term volatility. The incredible shift in late-week trading made for some exciting and profitable trades. But now that the house of cards has been cleared and shoved off onto the books of the U.S. taxpayer, what can we make of the current trend situation? Although last week may have ushered in a stock market bottom, there are – as always – lingering questions about the consequences of this government solution. Regardless of whether the bailout costs the American taxpayer as much as it is feared - $700-billion to $1-trillion estimated now, who knows if that is a lowball or exaggerated figure – there will be huge shifts in capital flows as nimble capital market participants deal with this huge shift in financial liability to the U.S. Treasury. Illiquidity triggered the intervention. Renewed liquidity will cap the knees of the greenback. Investors can expect the TSX and other global markets to revive.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index currently remains firmly in Stock Trends Bearish territory. The Stock Trends TSX Bull/Bear Ratio is 0.3, with 60% of trending stocks categorized as (strong) Bearish. That trend picture will not be reversed so easily. The cathartic moment of last Friday will be defining – the tremendous amount of trading is testimony to that. The Sector Select SPDR Fund (AMEX:SPY) recorded over 5.2-million trades last week, just short of the 5.7-million trades the entire Toronto Stock Exchange logged in (which is a considerable increase over its recent weekly average). As an indication of just how wild the market was last week – especially for financial stocks - the SPDR Financial ETF (AMEX:XLF) had over 2.7-billion shares traded! And the turmoil knew no borders. The iShares S&P/TSX Financial Fund (TSX:XFN) had a 326% increase in average weekly trading volume. The tremendous price swing that occurred over a very short period of time, ignited by the panic and frenzy that accompanied the collapse of the credit market and systemic failure of venerable financial institutions, was capped by the white knight appearance of public money. Although this moment may prove to be the bottom for many financial stocks, the Stock Trends barometer tells us to remain indoors. Our trend following approach dictates that others take the lead.
Gold stocks were the winning TSX sector last week. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index jumped 12.5%, with Kinross Gold (TSX:K) leading the blue chip precious metal stocks with a 22% gain. But the sector has much ground to make up before it triggers our trend interest. With the prospect of a U.S. dollar weakening looking a renewed probability, gold bullion should develop solid price momentum. We should see $1,000 gold soon. The flight to safety last week – U.S. T-Bills were yielding close to 0%! – was an indication of the crisis of confidence that gripped money markets. But the move to shore up the financial system has an almost certain implication – the greenback will lose the shallow footing it had gained over recent months. Commodity inflation appears imminent. Investors will again look for safety in a world where dollar inflation has once again been triggered. Nevertheless, this expectation is not our game. Trend followers must wait for the forces of momentum to build. The gold sector is still down 14% in the last three months and qualitatively in a bear trend. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index`s primary trend line is flat, so only a sustained move over the final quarter of the year will change that picture.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
For investors unfamiliar with the Stock Trends system of analysis, visit www.stocktrends.ca to see view weekly stock tables for all major North American exchanges, including the NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, and Toronto Stock Exchange.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
The end result of the change is the index is more exposed to the cyclical energy sector and the strained financial sector. Nevertheless, the Dow Industrial will now more closely reflect the broader economy. It's performance will also more closely mirror the S&P 500. Currently, the Dow is outperforming the S&P 500 by 2% over the past quarter and bested the S&P 500 through much of 2007. A chart of the Dow's Stock Trends Relative Strength Indicator shows the relative performance. See Dow Industrial Index Chart.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
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Monday, February 04, 2008
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
However, the market is looking for signs of a bottom. Stock Trends offers little help with such fortune-telling. It can serve up a storyline as it unfolds, though. One of the recent Stock Trends NYSE Picks of the Week is Anworth Mortgage Asset Co (NYSE:ANH), a real estate investment trust that has developed price momentum over the past 13-weeks. The appearance of this California-based REIT, and its inherent assets - those mortgage-backed securities left for dead meat - in the Stock Trends filters gives us encouraging indications about the prospect for more stable housing and credit markets going forward. ANH will be a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover this week, its steadily building secondary trend is pushing the stock toward its May 07 high of $10.06. Every bit of financial market news that shows that ANH is still good paper is helping. Things must be improving - the company is proceeding with an 11-million share offering. The stock closed at $9.10 today. We will see what kind of appetite the market now has for this soured, but revived asset class.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
The emerging bear market of 2008 comes after a less than gratifying year for the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio. The trend conditions in 2007 never really favoured the trading strategy. Indeed, the number of portfolio buys totaled 15, half the average yearly number of buys. The return on average invested capital was an uninspiring 10.2%, better than the 7.1% the S&P/TSX Composite Index logged in 2007, but well below the 42% average return on invested capital measured over the 14 complete years the trading strategy has been active. If there is an appetizing morsel to nibble on, it may be the outstanding performance of the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio in the last market downturn. The results of 2002 - an impressive return of 62% for the ST Portfolio versus a 13% drop in the S&P/TSX Composite Index - reveal that the trend apparatus of Stock Trends can produce trading profits in a grizzly market. It is a matter of being in the right place at the right time. For now we must wait for investor sentiment to turn, an event that will be represented by a rising level of Weak Bearish () stocks. With only 7% of TSX stocks currently in a Weak Bearish trend, we know that patience is in full order. Until the level of Weak Bearish stocks increases the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio will be in hibernation with the bears.
Stock Trends has revealed the ominous conditions since last summer. It was then that the level of broad bullishness collapsed - Stock Trends Bullish stocks fell from 53% to 20% of trending stocks. Although the price level of the benchmark North American indices rallied in Q4 of 2007, broad investor sentiment measured by the aggregate of Stock Trends indicators clearly made the case that the market peaks were unsustainable.
There will be more painful days ahead, but investors should look to rebalance their portfolios and move toward sector strengths in consumer non-cyclical, utilities, health care and gold stocks. Also, certain global commodity plays - like agri-business - have bullish trends that can withstand the strains of the bear market onslaught. These strengths are exhibited by the Stock Trends Bullish indicators that charm these sectors - see the Stock Trends U.S. market indices report.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
POT has dropped 10% and is now trading ($124) above a support level it touched in earlier trading. AGU similarly sits above its support level represented by its 13-week MA ($60). The global agriculture-chemical boom will not be swayed by the forces working against North American equity markets - the bullish trend of stocks like POT and AGU should give positive guidance for traders ready to pick up these stocks at the support levels touched today.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Monday, January 14, 2008
Saturday, January 12, 2008
This week two TSX stocks draw out attention, one of which is SXC Health Solutions (TSX:SXC), an IT company supporting the health management industry. The health sector has come to the stage in recent weeks, primarily in the U.S. reports. SXC fits into the sector's strength, and its tepid price momentum is developing. The stock closed at $15.04, a 5.5% advance on the week, with the Stock Trends low volume indicator. As a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock SXC is a good candidate for a bullish turn once the market is drawn to this ember.
Investors in gold stocks will have taken to the signals for big cap golds in the latter half of last year. Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week in late August at $34.71. It closed Friday at $52.26 (a 51% gain). Also a pick in late August was Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM), now trading 39% higher. The end of October brought out other golds in the Picks of the Week report: Kinross Gold (TSX:K), now up 33%; Goldcorp (TSX:G), advanced 20%, and the iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Fund (TSX:XGD), now a 17% gain. The most recent big cap gold stock in the TSX Picks of the Week Report, Yamana Gold (TSX:YRI) showed up in the January 4th report. It advanced 14% last week.