The Bull/Bear ratio on the Toronto Stock Exchange has reached 2.04, with 55% of trending stocks currently labelled as Stock Trends Strong Bullish. Nevertheless, the past two years the peaks of bullish sentiment were reached in the March. The coming months may present some cautious spring winds.
Friday, March 24, 2006
Trading activity in Algoma Steel (TSX:AGA) was high this past week. Steel stocks continue to press north, with AGA out-performing the market by 32% over the past quarter. Industry consolidation factors into the market's buying pressure. Certainly, IPSCO Inc's (TSX:IPS) has set an impressive standard: it leads the S&P/TSX 60 stocks in 2006 performance and continues to reach new highs. Nevertheless, AGA traded much more actively this week in terms of Relative Volume and the Stock Trends Unusual Volume alert makes the stock especially interesting. Current price is $32.49.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
The past year has been a ride for Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (AMEX: SWB), but investors are starting to holster-up in the stock again. The stock hit a high of $6.22 today - not too far off its peak of $6.96 a year ago...before it misfired. SWB has rallied nicely in 2006. Its Stock Trends RSI has climbed to 147, and the stock has been a Stock Trends Pick of the Week for the past two weeks.
The poorest performing TSX sector in the first quarter of 2006 has been the utilities. The 13-week Stock Trends RSI for the S&P/TSX Utilities Index is 86. This sub-market performance relates significantly to the rising interest rate environment. Indicative of the weakness is the performance of TransAlta (TA-T), Fortis (FTS-T), and Canadian Utilities (CU.NV-T).
Hangfeng Evergreen (HF-T) rallies above $4 today on strong volume. HF has been advancing over the past few weeks. Today's material news:
TORONTO, March 23 /CNW/ - Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. ("Hanfeng" or the "Company") has entered into a Letter of Intent with the China National Hybrid Rice R&D Center (the "Center") for a program of field trials and marketing of Hanfeng's Sulfur Coated Urea (SCU) slow-release fertilizer in China's main rice growing regions. The field testing will focus on measuring and recording the effectiveness of SCU to increase rice crop yield and quality. This ground- breaking cooperation is headed by world-renowned scientist, Dr. Yuan Longping, Director of the Center, and revered throughout the developing world as the "Father of Hybrid Rice".
HF has been a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holding since January 26.
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
SunOpta Inc (SOY-T) has been a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holding since January 19, but this week marks an important elevation of interest in this stock. Yesterday the company's chairman presided over the opening bell at the NASDAQ, celebrating its February listing on the exchange. The additional profile helped stir trading in the stock as it climbed to a high of $9.66 on the TSX (US$8.30 on NASDAQ where it trades as STKL-Q).
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
A top performing U.S. exchange traded fund is Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio - PWB (http://www.powershares.com/pbwfund.asp ), which has outperformed the S&P 500 by 18% over the past 13-weeks. PWB stock holdings include Zoltek Cos (ZOLT), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Suntech Power Holdings (STP), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), and Ormat Technologies (ORA). PWB has fallen off its 52-week high ($21.13) in recent weeks and closed today at $19.75.
The top performing Canadian index this year has been The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index. It has a 13-week Stock Trends Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) of 113 - telling us that it has out-performed the senior TSX by 13%. The NASDAQ Canada Index, also indicative of Canadian small cap performance, is runner-up with an RSI of 109.
After scaling to a 52-week high last week, bio-pharmeceutical stock FVRL closed at $6.63. Recent insider buying is of note (2.1-million shares), but volume in Favrille Inc's stock picked up considerably last week. The stock is back near its high today, trading at $7.50 at midday.
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Stock Trends barometer of investor sentiment remains bullish. Although the general tone of the marketplace seems tentative, with analysts split on the prognosis for stocks in 2006, the current trend situation is favourable. The Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio measures the aggregate distribution of stocks with Stock Trend indicators. These indicators switch between Bullish and Bearish when the secondary trend line and the primary trend line of individual stocks (and indices) intersect. A Bullish stock has its 13-week average price above its 40-week average price. Conversely, a Bearish stock has its 13-week average price below its 40-week average price. More recent price movement dictates the trend indicator.
Currently, the Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio for North American markets remains strong:
Currently, the Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio for North American markets remains strong:
Monday, March 13, 2006
The top performing Dow Jones industry group in 2006 is... steel! And despite the fact that most of the group did poorly this past week, Nucor Group (NUE) hit another 52-week high, closing up 8.3% at $95.08. However, today's open above $96 was followed by profit-taking as the stock dropped by $3 in afternoon trading. Keep an eye on trading in the steel group as a top forms for many of these high flying industrial stocks.
Also hitting a 52-week high, BA remains stuck under the $75 level. The stock has developed resistance here, so a move above $75 would be telling. BA is in week 141 of its bullish trend, and has the longest bull trend of all the Dow Jones Industrial stocks. This week's Barron's cover story detailing Boeing's turnaround and resurgence over the last five years paints a positive picture for Boeing and its battle with Airbus. Look for the BA bullish trend to continue.
Hitting a new 52-week high this week, PG has performed well since its Bullish Crossover on September 9. The stock has advanced 9.4% as the bullish trend has developed. This consumer stock is out-performing the S&P 500 by 7% over the last 13-weeks.
The top performing Dow Jones Industrial stock this past week was GM - up 12.6%. Although GM is a Newly Weak Bearish stock, this price advance is not sufficient enough to stem the current bearish sentiment. This stock has much work to do before the market will give its blessing.
Another consumer stock that has had a long stay on the Bear train, Eastman Kodak, has elevated itself into Stock Trends Pick of the Week report. About a year ago EK peaked at the $35 level and then lost investor support as it plunged. Hitting bottom in October at nearly $20, EK has fought back from concerns it is not up to the challenges of the digital era. Its intermediate trend has been developing in the early months of 2006, and EK is a Bullish Crossover and Pick of the Week currently.
A host of other consumer stocks are lighting up our trend alert filters. The Picks of the Week report includes the like of Federated Department Stores (FD), Del Monte (DLM), HJ Heinz (HNZ), Estee Lauder (EL), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Verizon Communications (VZ). So perhaps investors are not taking such a negative view of the prospects for the U.S. consumer.
Closing at $7.95 on Friday, up $1.38 on the week, KKD traded heavy volume following the announcement that a former Kraft Foods executive will take the helm at troubled Krispy Kreme. KKD has been steadily recovering from 4th quarter lows (late October, $3.91), and has been a Weak Bearish stock most of the last three months. Nevertheless, Krispe Kreme is on a short leash with the NYSE, and must comply with its required filings as its listing extension deadline (April 30) draws near. The market seems to think a new master will put things in order. KKD was nearly a $50 stock three years ago, but if investors can put that history behind and look at the possible trend change at work, the opportunity for trading profit comes - at some level of risk. A Bullish Crossover is predicted for the coming week, this coinciding with the closure - perhaps - the new CEO hopes to usher in.
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
One of the current Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holdings, Hanfeng Evergreen (HF), advanced over 9% today after very positive earnings were announced. The stock closed at its high of $3.55 today. The Stock Trends Portfolio picked up HF in late January.
Monday, March 06, 2006
Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) has rallied from its fourth quarter '05 lows of $7.63 and is now trading near $14. Currently a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock, HGSI has developed a strong enough intermediate trend to be on our stock watch. If it moves through resistance at $14, expect price momentum to carry the stock higher yet.
The best performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Index is Caterpillar (CAT). It has out-performed the broad market by 25% in the past quarter. But other heavy machinery stocks are moving, too. Last week was positive for these bullish stocks: CAT up 2.6%, JLG Industries (JLG) up 7.1%, and CNH Global (CNH) up 5.1%. Deere & Co. (DE) is trading very near its 52-week high, as well. The best performers over the past 13-weeks are Manitowoc (MTW) which is up 48% in the past 13-weeks, and CNH up 50% over the period. CNH has been a Stock Trends Pick of the Week for the past three weeks and is currently a Bullish Crossover stock.
Over 4.8 million shares of Zarlink Semiconductor (ZL) traded today - the stock moving above resistance at $2.80 as it reached a new high of $2.88. ZL has been on a bullish trend since last autumn, currently a Stock Trends Bullish stock with an 13-week RSI of 123. Today's positive move signals a continuation of the trend.
Friday, March 03, 2006
Energy services stocks are hot again. ShawCor Ltd. (SCL.SV.A) is one of the Stock Trends Picks of the Week as it has rallied strongly off of its lows in late 2005. This changing trend makes SCL.SV.A a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock. The Relative Strength Indicator is now 112, and will be improving should today's positive move above resistance at $18.50 hold. Volume has been strong, so look for continued price momentum and a new bullish trend.
Golden Star Resources (GSC) advanced 5.3% last week on low volume. GSC has a Stock Trends Weak Bearish trend, with a Bullish Crossover anticipated this coming week. While low trading volume is normally a cause for concern with bullish trending stocks, it can signal an important shift in bullish sentiment for stocks in bearish trends that are advancing off support levels. The stock is up again today, currently trading at $3.88.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
CIBC (CM) has failed to gain much traction since its rally off of its lows back in the autumn. It has tested resistance at the $81 level earlier in the year, but the move today to a new 52-week high at $81.75 offers traders another cue. Should CM move significantly through this level the prospects for its bullish trend would improve.
Financial stocks have done well recently. Many of the big banks are making 52-week highs on the TSX, but a relative new-comer to the TSX stage is steadily gaining an audience of investors. Canaccord Capital (CCI) is a major independent Canadian retail brokerage house, and its stock has been on a solid bullish trend since last September. Currently trading at $17.50, CCI has advanced 61% since its Stock Trends Bullish Crossover signal. It was a Pick of the Week on August 25 at $10.70. Although the stock is off its 52-week high ($18.95), CCI is outpacing the Toronto market by 12% in the past 13-weeks. Perhaps ahead: inclusion in the S&P/TSX Composite Index?