Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Gold stocks unstoppable

When will this end? Gold was up again today, closing at $570, and gold stocks advanced another 2% on the TSX. The heaviest trading was in Bema (BGO), Kinross (K), and Eldorado (ELD). The S&P /TSX Gold Index has been a Stock Trends bullish sector for 22 weeks, but really began its bull rally in mid-May of last year. Certainly, gold prices of plus-$500 were ambitious targets at that time. As to the near future: bet on further advances as gold - and gold stocks - catch up to the strong move in oil prices in the last couple of years. The ratio of oil to gold is a commonly watched relationship, and this pendulum has begun to swing back toward gold. The graph shows the relationship between energy stock prices (S&P/TSX Energy Index) and gold stock prices (S&P/TSX Gold Index). In the past two years the trend has been toward the energy sector. However, the relative strength of the gold sector is starting to show. The Energy/Gold ratio is dropping, reflecting greater price appreciation in gold stocks relative to energy stocks. Gold is again winning back favour as a commodity currency. The current Stock Trends RSI for Gold stocks is 118, compared to Energy stocks at 108 (see http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/indexes/?indexgrp=C&weekdate=2006-01-26&order=rsi). The market is looking for more.

Sunday, January 29, 2006

Top performing U.S. indexes

The ranking of the best performing U.S. indexes over the past 13-weeks tells us a lot about the character of the U.S. market. At the top, outperforming the S&P 500 by almost 30% is the Gold & Silver Mining index - not surprising considering how hot this sector has been. Out-performing the market by 21% is the Philadelphia Semiconductor index, the SOXX, which had a stellar week advancing 7.4%. Next in line is the DJ Transport index, which has been advancing strongly thanks to the railroad stocks.
Traders and small investors already know this: small cap stocks are big! They are outperforming the S&P 500 by 8%, as the Russell 2000 and Wilshire small cap index show.
For a weekly ranking of the performance of U.S. indexes go to:

Saturday, January 28, 2006

Bullish sentiment improves

There are 60 new Bullish Crossover stocks on the NYSE this week, helping to bring the percentage of strong bullish stocks to 47.5%. The number of Weak Bearish stocks increased to 15.3%, so the bullish sentiment will continue to improve.

The percentage of strong Bullish stocks on the NASDAQ is now 50%, with the Bull?Bear ratio at 1.4. The AMEX has 51% of trending stocks currently labelled as strong Bullish.

To see the current distribution of the Stock Trends trend indicators, go to:


Friday, January 27, 2006

Corriente Resources advances

One of the Stock Trends Portfolio holdings sparkled today, closing at $5.25 with a 9.4% gain. Corriente Resources (CTQ-T) entered the ST TSX Portfolio in early September at $3.49. Currently the portfolio is predominantly invested in gold and mining stocks. 

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Plantronics has a big growth spurt

A Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock since January 6, Plantronics Inc (PLT) surged over 17% today on the NYSE. Reaching a high of $37, PLT has traded 3-million shares already today. The Weak Bearish indicator is our long-term trend alert that the current bearish trend is changing. Today's move advances that prospect.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

More bulls to come...

The number of Weak Bearish stocks on the TSX measures 20% of the total trending stocks. This is a high level, and is generally an indicator that there will be an expansion in the number of bullish stocks over the next period. Indeed the number of Weak Bullish stocks (an indicator of fading bullish sentiment) is down to 2%. Currently 50% of TSX stocks are Strong Bullish. We can expect this number to rise in the coming weeks.
The NYSE is also showing strong bullish sentiment. Strong Bullish stocks account for 45% of the total, while Weak Bearish stocks number a relatively high 12%. This also bodes well for the coming period. For a look at the current distribution of the Stock Trends indicators on the NYSE, check the Bulls and Bears graph at the following link:

Steel stocks surge

Trading in a number of steel stocks fueled strong gains today. Steel stocks have been fairing well this year, ranking #12 in industry year-to-date performance as of last Friday. Today's performance will improve that ranking. Topping the group today is A K Steel (AKS) with a 28% gain on the NYSE. U.S. Steel (X) jumped 8% to close at $55.74. In all, 11 steel stocks advanced at least 4% today on the Big Board. Look for continued price momentum in this hot group.

McAfee drops

There is heavy trading in McAfee Inc. (MFE) on the big board today as this Stock Trends Bearish Crossover stock slides even more. The Bearish Crossover last week was an exit signal not normally ignored, and the drop to $23 takes the stock into unsupported territory.

Monday, January 23, 2006

Canadian Natural Resources full to the brim...again

It has only been eight months since Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) last split its stock, but here we are again - back where we started. That would be a 100% gain since May of last year. Impressive. CNQ closed just shy of $70 on the TSX and at $60 on the NYSE. Not coincidentally, CNQ split its stock in May of 2004 at the same levels. It would not be too much of a stretch to expect another split in the coming months.
Stock Trends helped identify a trading opportunity most recently in CNQ when the stock was tagged as Weak Bullish back in October. The share price had drifted back toward a support level and the Weak Bullish indicator alerted to this trend violation. The stock has rallied since - up 55% since the October bounce.
CNQ is week 150 of a Stock Trends Bullish trend - a three year performance that is quite remarkable - especially because the end does not seem near. This is a winning horse...with legs!

Saskatchewan Wheat Pool advances on heavy volume

A Stock Trends Pick of the Week stock for the past two weeks, Saskatchewan Wheat Pool (SWP) continues to rally on strong volume. A Bullish Crossover stock, SWP has been on a steady upward march since November. SWP has traded over 2-million shares today and hit a new high since the stock's big drop last spring. SWP shares trading today at $7.80, representing a 17% year-to-date performance.


Saturday, January 21, 2006

Railroad stocks roll

The market finished on a bad note this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Index closed down 2.7% on the week, with only 3 of the 30 index members advancing. Hitting a 52-week high, McDonalds (MCD) with its 4% move was the best performer of the Dow 30. But the major tremor was felt in the technology sector. Internet, and semiconductor stocks took the biggest hit - poster boys IBM (down 2.1%) and Intel (INTC) (down 15.6%) both responding to investor jitters - while Yahoo (YHOO)(-15%) and Google (GOOG)(-14%) were meted a serious flight of sellers on the NASDAQ. Financial stocks also dropped 3.3%, with insurance stocks like AIG and Metlife (MET) notably weak. Stock Trends followers will find multiple bank stocks in our listing of Newly Weak Bullish stocks - including Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (CIT), Wachovia (WB), US Bancorp (USB), and Commerce Bancorp (CBH). Indeed, the coming week will present some important answers about the resiliency of both the technology and financial sectors.

Amid the scampering of little feet toward the exits there was also a solid party of investors who would have none of the panic, instead nestling even closer to the bar with their cigars and cognac. These hardcore investors were definitely old school - picking up rolling stock, of all things. Railroad stocks rose a healthy 4%, outperformed this week by only the oil services industry. Union Pacific (UNP) (up 6.4%), and Norfolk Southern (NSC) (up 4.2%), and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) (up 2.7%) were the most actively traded of the group. The railroads have been one of the best performing industry groups in the past year - currently up 37% from a year ago. The strong bullish trend in these transport stocks seems to be an important antidote to the market's queasy feelings.


Friday, January 20, 2006

Transalta (TA-T) breaks below support

One of the stocks that is a Stock Trends Newly Weak Bullish is TransAlta Corp. (TA-T), signalling a break in the bullish trend and as the share price has fallen through support. The Stock Trends indicator alerts toward monitoring this stock. Further price erosion would be a sell signal, while bullish holders of TA may look for price recovery and accumulate of the current weakness.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Phazar (ANTP) surges

Another stock highlighted in our Newly Weak Bearish report continues to advance aggressively. Phazar Corp. (ANTP-Q) hit a high of $22.18 today. ANTP moved joined Stock Trends watch list after its big move last week. The current trading level is well above the 40-week moving average.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Crystallex (KRY-T) advances again

Crystallex International Corp (KRY-T) has been on Stock Trends watch list since the beginning of December. Trading today continues to push the stock higher, reaching a high of $3.39 on the TSX this morning. KRY was also a Low Volume Gains stock in the December 22 Stock Trends report - sometimes an indicator of interest for Weak Bearish stocks, as it can signal a pending breakout.


Ivanhoe Energy (IE-T) has advanced to a high of $3.49 on the TSX today - an impressive move. IE was one of the highlighted stocks in Stock Trends Newly Weak Bearish report last week. Stock Trends Weak Bearish category is an early indicator of a change in a bearish long-term trend. Last week IE was also tagged with an unusually high volume indicator - another good sign.

Monday, January 16, 2006

BMO continues to climb

The best performing bank on the TSX has been Bank of Montreal (BMO-T), with a current RSI of 108. By comparison, of the other TSX-listed banks only Laurentian (LB-T) has out-performed the broad market in the past 13-weeks. BMO closed today at $70.24 - another 52-week high.

The Goldcorp standard

Goldcorp (G-T) hit $30 today, a welcome event for Stock Trends followers who bought this Pick of the Week stock back at the end of June for $19. Precious metals figured prominently in our weekly Picks during that time, and continue to populate the Stock Trends Portfolio.
For a history of Goldcorp's Stock Trends indicators see:

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Take a seat on the La Z Boy (LZB)

Consumer product stocks have been showing up in our filters recently. Some home furnishing stocks have done well enough to outperform the market handsomely. Home Furniture Brands International (FBN-N) was a Bullish Crossover stock a week ago, and now sports an RSI of 129. A pause in its third quarter rally has held FBN back in recent weeks, but a move to $24 bodes well for further advances. Similarly, La Z Boy (LZB-N) has resistance to break through at $15.30. Watch these stocks move from the comfort of your living room.

Is Merck back?

Merck (MRK-N) has been a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock for most of the past 11 weeks, and should be a Bullish Crossover stock in the coming week. The price momentum is relatively strong, with Merck out-performing the S&P 500 by 14% in the past quarter. Other big Pharma stocks cannot boast this performance.

Pull up your SOXX

Behind only the Gold and Silver Index, the Semiconductor Index (SOXX) has set the pace in the past 13-weeks. The SOXX is outperforming the S&P 500 by 10% and is showing just how hot semiconductor stocks are. Leading the pack is Advanced Micro (AMD-N) and Zarlink (ZL-N). ZL is up 10% this week on unusually high volume.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Top performing U.S. traded ETF

The gold bugs have found many opportunities for trading profits, but did you know that the top performing AMEX-traded ETF over the past 13-weeks is the Ishares MSCI South Africa (EZA)? This ETF is out-performing the S&P 500 by over 20%.


Check out Stock Trends complete ETF ranking at:


Trading activity in International Equity ETF (XIN-T)

Although the positive move in iUnit International Equity ETF (XIN-T) underperformed the TSX market, unusually high volume this past week suggests some investors are anxious to particiapte in bullish international markets. The number of transactions in XIN was much higher than the weekly average this past week. Stock Trends' high volume indicator also shows heated action in this trade. The new year has shown a heightened level of investor confidence.

Stock Trends TSX Portfolio results

Current stock holdings in the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio are performing well in recent weeks. The portfolio is up 9.4% YTD, thanks to its gold stock weighting. A broadening of the bullish market sentiment will mean new stock holdings in the coming weeks. There was a new Buy this week.

You can check out the 12 year trading history of the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio at:


Friday, January 13, 2006

TSX Bull/Bear Ratio improves

The Stock Trends sentiment indicator has improved from its neutral position to 1.10, indicating that market breadth is becoming more favourable. Strong bullish stocks account for 48% of total TSX trending stocks. The rise in the number of weak bearish stocks also indicates an improvement in the sentiment indicator.

See http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stbvb

More precious metal plays

The beginning of 2006 will be set in a speculative fashion, as traders stick to the hot gold and energy sectors. Many of these stocks are leading our momentum category, with strong bullish trends. Although the best performing sector this week was Health Care, the number of stocks reaching new highs in the precious metals industry is substantial.

Looking for a stock that may have some upside potential in this mix? One of the Stock Trends Bullish Crossover stocks this week looks promising. It's chart is exhibiting a trend reversal, rising price momentum and strong volume.