Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Stock Trends Report - Canadian Solar Inc (NASDAQ:CSIQ)
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Stock Trends Report: Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ:ESLR):
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
For Stock Trends followers, though, the first cue for entry in this winner was a year ago when GOOG had its most recent Bullish Crossover. The stock suffered a slight summer cold in the previous period (it went Stock Trends Bearish in mid-July 2006), so the Bullish Crossover signal in October 20, 2006 was the first reversal of trend for GOOG. The stock was one of the Stock Trends NASDAQ Picks of the Week then (at $459). Although just about any entry point has been swell to date for this darling stock, the summer period in 2006 was challenging enough to advise an exit - however temporary it turned out to be. Here the Stock Trends indicators helped direct investors when price trend shifted positively. Trading with the trend is the Stock Trends modus operandi.
Stock Trends history- Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)
Stock Trends Report - Penn West Energy Trust (TSX:PWT.UN)
Stock Trends Report - Canetic Resources Trust (TSX:CNE.UN)
Friday, October 26, 2007
TSX Bull vs. Bears - Graph of Distribution of Stock Trends indicators:
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Stock Trends Report - Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL):
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Stock Trends followers are well aware, though, that the mechanical trading system has been largely dormant since the first quarter of 2007. Although the TSX stretched toward new highs into the summer and rallied after the August correction, the trend landscape for the Stock Trends trading system has been unfavourable. Currently, only 30% of TSX stocks are Bullish. The market's volatility over the period since the ST Portfolio downshifted has generated profits for some trading systems, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index 6% advance since Q1 has not been without considerable risk. The cash position of the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio reflects the prudent steps of a trader with an ear to the ground.
Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading history (1993-present):
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Stock Trends Report: Open Text (TSX:OTC):
Thursday, October 18, 2007
I was no more than a market observer at the time, but the event left a mark on me. As the 20th anniversary of Black Monday hits us tomorrow we should all pause to consider the potential for another Black Swan - an outlier event of seemingly unimaginable possibility. Important to current investors to recall is the ominous feeling that hovered over investors on the weekend preceding October 19, 1987. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped 10% in the final days of the previous week and there was palpable concern heading into the weekend. The festering sore did indeed bust, and we should be wary of current day infections that have an equally dangerous potential to cripple the market.
For my part Black Monday Eve was tempered, indeed softened, by a weekend flight with my new born daughter as I introduced her to her grandparents for the first time. A reminder that life goes on - even in the midst of catastrophe.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Peerless Energy (TSX:PRY.A) is advancing in the
heightened oil & gas sector. The stock is now trading
at $4.30 and will be a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover
in the coming week.
Stock Trends Report - Peerless Energy (TSX:PRY.A)
Energy (TSX:BIR) is surging above the $5.25 level.
With crude oil prices approaching an
inflation-adjusted all-time high, it's hard to avoid
energy exposure. Volume of trading in BIR surged on
Friday and remains high as the stock moves toward
resistance that hovers above. The stock hit a high of
$5.50 in early June before falling off to a late
summer low of $3.70. Look for BIR to show its bullish
potential over the coming days.
Stock Trends Report - Birchcliff Energy (TSX:BIR):
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
into an historical context. Market technicians earn
their keep by comparing market conditions now with
conditions in the past, making the assumption that
patterns repeat themselves. But some things are
different. One notable difference is the market
participation - most specifically the number of
transactions that are executed. A decade ago the
average weekly number of transactions on the Toronto
Stock Exchange was about 200,000. Now the number of
weekly trades is 10 times that level. Last week there
were 2,572,170 trades on the TSX. The recent 5-year
bull run has much to thank in this heightened level of
trading. However, it remains to be seen how such an
active market will turn on itself if things go bad.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Resources (TSX:PBG) has blazed its own profitable
trail for investors. It has outperformed the S&P/TSX
Composite Index by 48% over the past three months and
continues its assault on new highs. With crude oil
tipping $86 the sky may be the limit for PBG. The
stock was a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover at the end
of 2004, back when shares traded for $2.20. Today's
high of $45.18 shows us the sector, despite its
tempered performance as a group, can sprout some
Stock Trends Report - Petrobank Energy and Resources
a full time job. No surprise that market bears dust
off the Dow Theory to support their prevailing fear
that this Goldilocks market is not without some cold
porridge. A pillar of Dow Theory, however dated its
precepts, is that the Dow Transports should support
the Dow Industrials. What's good for the industrial
workhorses of America should be good for their
carriers. Globalization helps and hinders the theory,
but, in a theoretical sense this correlation has great
The current divergence of the two groups makes for
unsettling evidence of a precarious market moment as
we hurtle toward the October gauntlet. Stock Trends
followers would have noted the early divergence back
on August 3 when the Dow Transportation Index turned
Weak Bullish. The Transports turned Stock Trends
Bearish at the end of September, making the current
Stock Trends Bullish indicator of the Dow Industrial
Index a blaring contradiction with the Dow Transports'
However, the same divergence occurred in the late
summer of 2006. The Dow Industrials pulled through
that period, later to scale 12,000 in fine fashion.
The Dow Transport Index has a ways to go to reverse
the Bearish trend and recover to its previous high.
The coming months will be telling.
Stock Trends Report - Dow Jones Transport Index:
Stock Trends Report - Dow Jones Industrial Index:
Friday, October 12, 2007
in a Stock Trends Bullish trend. That 246-week period
ended last week when the stock was tagged as a Bearish
Crossover - a signal that the 13-week moving average
trend line has dropped below the 40-week moving
average trend line. HSE is currently underperforming
the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 6% over the past
quarter, joining the sub-par performance of other
Canadian integrated oils.
Stock Trends Report - Husky Energy Inc. (TSX:HSE):
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Energy Inc.(NYSE:NBL) has delivered investors ample
return on its four-plus year trend. Last week's heavy
trading showed NBL may have more to give. Today the
stock sits above $75 and has advanced 25% since its
brief flirtation with the Stock Trends Weak Bullish
indicator at the end of August. A Weak Bullish
indicator alerts investors to a critical support area,
a signal to monitor for either selling on further
downside movement or accumulation on signs of price
support. NBL found support along the 40-week moving
average trend line (Stock Trends primary trend line)
and has rallied to today's new high. Energy bulls will
do well to stick with NBL.
Stock Trends Report - Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE:NBL):
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
when Tim Hortons (TSX:THI) went public last year.
Without a trading history, and absent the Stock Trends
indicators, THI did not fit our stock picking
criteria. Alas, its time has come. THI is now a Stock
Trends Pick of the Week selection. The stock has moved
above $36 and has potential to regain some lost
ground. Look for THI to hold above $36 with improved
Stock Trends Report - Tim Hortons (TSX:THI)
Brazil are performance leaders in the past quarter,
Canadian stocks have earned a handsome commodity
premium for investors. In U.S. dollar terms Canadian
equities advanced 7.6% in the last quarter. The
faltering U.S. dollar will continue to attract
international capital to Canadian equities.
A Ranking of Global Equity markets by Stock Trends
13-week Relative Strength Indicator:
Friday, October 05, 2007
Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Group (TSX:X) has hit our
trend alerts. The stock outperformed the S&P/TSX
Composite Index by 14% in the third quarter and is now
trading above $48, a resistance level that dates from
the May sell-off. Bullish sentiment for materials and
energy stocks will help drive X higher.
Stock Trends Report - TSX Group (TSX:X)
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
ZCL Composites (TSX:ZCL) jumped 10% to close at
$12.69. ZCL, a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock, was
notable in last week's Stock Trends Top TSX Low Volume
Gains report. Today's trading volume was brisk, more
than the entire five trading days of last week. ZCL
has moved above resistance at $12 and is in a good
position to continue the breakout toward the $14 level.
Stock Trends Report - ZCL Composites (TSX:ZCL)
increasingly popular should the stock market stumble.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is a Stock Trends Weak
Bearish stock, an indication that the stock has an
improving bill of health. JNJ is now battling with
resistance at $66. Should it clear this level
investors may be rewarded with a nice move back to the
highs of a year ago ($69.41).
Stock Trends Report - Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Index bursting through 14,000 yesterday. However,
although the absolute level of the index may be at new
all-time highs, the shallow depth of the broad market
sentiment gives investors plenty of reason to remain
sceptical of the future of this rally. Currently, the
Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio for the New York Stock
Exchange is 0.6, signalling that a vast majority of
stocks are trending in Stock Trends Bearish territory.
Over 50% of trending NYSE stocks are strong Bearish.
The aggregate distribution of the Stock Trends
indicators warns us of the fragile footing the current
rally rests on.
NYSE Stock Trends indicator Distribution:
Friday, May 04, 2007
Thursday, April 26, 2007
AN UNORTHODOX POWER PLAYEver wonder where all those utility pools and railway ties that line our highways and byways come from? Stella-Jones Inc. of
. MontrealThe only public company of its kind in North Americawas rated "buy," with a price target of $42.50 in initial coverage by Desjardins Securities. The stock is unchanged at $36.03 on the TSX Thursday, after coming from $17.50 last summer.SJ was founded in 1993 out of Domtar Inc.'s wood preserving assets. Since 2003, it has spent about $110-million on acquisitions that have generated new sales of $160-million, winning a 15 per cent market share in North America. Running at a rate of one acquisition per year, SJ is the industry's leading consolidator, says analyst Pierre Lacroix.He likes the story both for its internal and growth-by-acquisition potential. Two years ago, SJ expanded into the , which is expected to be the main growth platform, including acquisitions, in coming years, he predicts. United StatesGiven its growth potential, he is "confident that SJ will be able to maintain high valuation multiples in the next 12 months."
Friday, February 09, 2007
Stock Trends Report - TSX:TIH
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
The ST Portfolio equity line (see below) shows the path to its current level. In the 690 weeks since inception there have been 393 positions taken to date. The number of winning trades (159) gives this mechanical trading strategy a 40% success rate on individual trades. This may seem low to inexperienced investors, but many successful traders have winning percentages below 50%. Indeed, professional traders expect losses – they are a part of the business of trading. Generally, traders manage to succeed against these odds because they limit position losses and let profits run.
Stock Trends TSX Portfolio Trading Statistics
- Total Gain $240,912 (577%)
- # of weeks 690
- Total # of trades 393
- Winning Trades 159
- Losing Trades 234
- Winning % 40%
- Average # of weeks each position held 7.3
- Average # of positions held each week 4.2
- Average Gain $3,028 (30%)
- Average Loss $1,028 (-10%)
- Average Investment $41,737
- Average trade $10,000
- Maximum Drawdown (%) -34.2
- Largest Gain $40,880 (409%)
- Largest Loss $3,542 (-35%)
- Maximum losing trades in Succession 12
- Standard Deviation 7.7%
- Ulcer Index 9.8
- Profit factor 2.00
- Pessimistic Return Ratio 1.97
The Stock Trends Portfolio gives an example of this relationship. The average return on winning trades is 30%, while the average loss is 10%. Although there is some variability in returns – the standard deviation is 7.7% - the sporadic achievement of some hyper-return trades generates the desired positive result. The skewed distribution of returns shows a clustering two standard deviations around breakeven. The vast majority of trades cancel each other out, leaving the portfolio returns determined by the balance of high return trades versus the limited losses of the losing trades. Traders will recognize this pattern: managing losses of frequent infield hits in between scoring periodic “home runs”. Some of highly profitable trades are documented in the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading history found at ( http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/stp-tsx1.php ).
An important consideration for traders is drawdown, or the drain on equity that invariably comes when trading goes sour. Indeed, even with an exceptional winning percentage of 75% there is a 10% probability that a trader will experience a loss run of 5 (See Van K. Tharp’s article on randomness and streaks at http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_update/Weekly_241_oct_12_2005.htm ).
That means that even the most prescient stockpicker will face drawdowns. The Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading record shows the longest loss run (Jan 1997 to May 1997) was 12 trades but only resulted in a 4% drawdown. However, a run of 10 losses lead toward the biggest drawdown (-34%) in mid-1999. As the graph of the ST equity line shows, the portfolio was in a prolonged drawdown phase from mid-1997 until early 2000.
These areas of drawdown are measured by the Ulcer Index. The Ulcer Index was originally devised by Peter Martin in 1987 and described in The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds: Winning Strategies for Mutual Fund Investors (See http://www.tangotools.com/ui/ui.htm ). The UI differs from Standard Deviation in that it measures risk only on the downside and exposes the risk of sequences of losses. As described by Martin: “Ulcer Index measures the depth and duration of percentage drawdowns in price from earlier highs.”
As a comparison of drawdown, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is shown with its Ulcer Index graphed along with the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio Ulcer Index. The ST Portfolio managed to provide risk protection against the considerable 5-year drawdown after the September 2000 market collapse. This shows us that the buy-and-hold approach exposes investors to higher levels of risk compared to market timing trading systems. Stock Trends promotes the use of trend analysis in the timing of trades not only to generate superior returns, but to also limit downside risk.
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Stock Trends Report on PTM:
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
HF was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week and TSX Portfolio buy a year ago at $3.09, although the trade was stopped out on volatility in the spring ($3.70). HF has remained a ST Bullish stock and today's move to a new high of $5.15 promises further advances.
Stock Trends Report - TSX:HF:
Monday, January 15, 2007
Stock Trends Report: