Tuesday, October 16, 2007


Technical analysis is all about putting current prices
into an historical context. Market technicians earn
their keep by comparing market conditions now with
conditions in the past, making the assumption that
patterns repeat themselves. But some things are
different. One notable difference is the market
participation - most specifically the number of
transactions that are executed. A decade ago the
average weekly number of transactions on the Toronto
Stock Exchange was about 200,000. Now the number of
weekly trades is 10 times that level. Last week there
were 2,572,170 trades on the TSX. The recent 5-year
bull run has much to thank in this heightened level of
trading. However, it remains to be seen how such an
active market will turn on itself if things go bad.
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