Sunday, February 26, 2006

AMEX moves

The American Stock Exchange Composite Index (AMEX) is out-performing the S&P/500 Composite Index by 6% over the past 3-months. It advanced another 1% this past week thanks to activity in some of the the exchange's precious metal stocks. But the AMEX is also home to many of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) that investors are increasingly trading. Leading the AMEX ETF's this week was the iShares S&P/TOPIX Index Fund (ITF), which is a basket of Japanese stocks. ITF advanced 3.4% and has a Stock Trends Bullish indicator with an RSI of 109.

Disney trend turns bullish

The intermediate trend line of Walt Disney Corp (DIS) has moved above the primary long term trend line, signalling a Stock Trends bullish trend. DIS has advanced 22% since the October low, closing on Friday at $27.98. The stock is out-performing the S&P 500 by 10% over the past 13-weeks. February's advance has been especially strong. This week's Stock Trends Bullish Crossover signals a good entry point for long-term investors, regardless of the rally's current maturity.

Friday, February 24, 2006

Western Silver bonanza

No sooner does Glamis Gold (GLG) enter the honoured ranks of the S&P/TSX 60 index, then it stirs up the mix for all those portfolio managers who have to pick up the stock for their funds. Today's announced $1.2-billion buyout offer for Western Silver (WTC) adds some spice. Glamis means to go big, and the market will have to digest this quickly. GLG is off 4% post-announcement today.

But for WTC shareholders the buyout offers a nice premium. WTC was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week in early December when it traded at $12.02, and it had a Bullish Crossover on December 22. Today's big pop to $24.61 reminds us that consolidation is going to be a factor in the sector.

Real Estate advances

The top performing stocks in the S&P/TSX Real Estate Index continue to move forward. Real estate stocks are up 2.5% this past week. Leading the group is Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust (BEI.UN) which is at a 52-week high today. It is outperforming the TSX by 8% over the last 13-weeks. Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (REF.UN) advanced 6.6% last week. The relative performance of the sector is reflected by the fact that the iUnits S&P/TSX Real Estate Index ETF (XRE) has had positive moves for 6 of the 8 trading weeks to-date in 2006.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Telecom calls

The big telecom stocks have moved well over the past month or so. AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), BellSouth (BLS), and Sprint Nextel (S) have been garnering price momentum. All had good moves last week. The Telecom Holdrs (TTH) exchange traded fund is good basket to trade this group. It is at a 52-week high after advancing 4.6% last week.

Monday, February 20, 2006

Fedex back near 52-week high

Fedex Corp. (FDX) was the best performing stock in the DJ Transport index this past week. Closing just below its 52-week high, FDX advanced amid the drop in crude oil prices and an announced quarterly dividend.

Eastman Kodak develops trend

The digital age has been tough on Eastman Kodak, and it's stock has suffered for it. EK has been a Bearish stock for 41-weeks, but the current price momentum has taken it back to a level that alerts us of a change in trend. Perhaps investors have decided not to write EK off yet. Let's see how this intermediate trend develops.

Loosing weight - WTW

Spurred by positive news on the earnings and dividend front, trading in Weight Watchers International (WTW) was heavy. The stock advanced 11.6%, closing at $52.79, and became a Weak Bearish stock. However, expect some resistance at this level - losing market weight isn't easy.

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Time to Google "Sell"

Despite the positive move this morning, Google (GOOG) is in the Stock Trends dog house. The stock originally turned Weak Bullish on January 20, although it bounced back the following week enough to turn briefly back to our Bullish category. It is now in the Weak Bullish category and the share price is approaching the 40-week moving average. Clearly, the Google bears are coming out, and the magical ride this stock has enjoyed since its original listing has come to an end. It is time to bail...or buy. Buyers are doing so at high risk, as articles like the one in Barron's on the weekend point out. For trend-following traders, though, the picture is clear: it's time to sell.

Friday, February 10, 2006

Media stock revives

Thomson Corp (TOC) closed in positive territory today, despite a rough morning. TOC is a Newly Weak Bearish stock thanks to a solid performance last week - up 4.8%. Look for the stock to build price momentum in coming sessions.

Thursday, February 09, 2006

A best buy

Amid the weakness in high-flyin' gold and energy stocks, some consumer stocks have stood their ground. Today's trading in Best Buy (BBY-N) reminds us that the underlying economy is still strong. Strong volume and an 8% advance in share price is always worth noting, but this strong bullish stock is also testing resistance at its 52-week high. Watch for movement past $53.

Friday, February 03, 2006

Shaw Communications continues rally

Shaw Communications (SJR.NV.B) advanced 5% on heavy volume last week, continuing its $5 rally from its autumn lows. SJR.NV.B is one of Stock Trends Bullish Crossover stocks this week, as the 13-week moving average has penetrated above the 40-week moving average - our indicator that the long-term trend is now bullish. Shaw is outperforming its peers, with a 13-week Relative Strength Indicator of 106. Rogers Communications (RCI.NV.B), by comparison, has an RSI of 94. Although Rogers has been in a bullish trend for 68-weeks, Shaw is now righting its ship and setting the sails.

Heavy trading on TSX

As the S&P/TSX Composite Index flirts with 12,000, investors are trading at a frenzied pace. In the past 5 trading days over 2-billion shares have exchanged hands. This is a level unseen yet - even in the frothy days of 2000. Over 1.8-million transactions were logged in, so the Canadian investor is hungry for more profits.
The current Stock Trends TSX Bull/Bear ratio is 1.4, with 54% of trending stocks labelled as strong bullish.

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Altera tests resistance at $20

The Philadelphia Semiconductor sector (SOXX) index has been strong the past two months, with last week's 7.4% gain reminding us that semiconductor industry is a hot place to be. Today was another positive move for the SOXX, with all but two in positive territory. Big movers last week like Broadcom Corp (BRCM) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) joined Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as stellar performers in the group. But the best performer today was Altera Corp (ALTR), with a 4.3% gain closing at $20.13. ALTR has a Weak Bearish Stock Trends indicator and a strong RSI (110), so it is a stock we can focus on. The resistance level at $20 is established, so a solid move above $20 would be a very positive sign. The sector strength will help ALTR move through this resistance.