Monday, January 21, 2008

Hope for 2008

The emerging bear market of 2008 comes after a less than gratifying year for the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio. The trend conditions in 2007 never really favoured the trading strategy. Indeed, the number of portfolio buys totaled 15, half the average yearly number of buys. The return on average invested capital was an uninspiring 10.2%, better than the 7.1% the S&P/TSX Composite Index logged in 2007, but well below the 42% average return on invested capital measured over the 14 complete years the trading strategy has been active. If there is an appetizing morsel to nibble on, it may be the outstanding performance of the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio in the last market downturn. The results of 2002 - an impressive return of 62% for the ST Portfolio versus a 13% drop in the S&P/TSX Composite Index - reveal that the trend apparatus of Stock Trends can produce trading profits in a grizzly market. It is a matter of being in the right place at the right time. For now we must wait for investor sentiment to turn, an event that will be represented by a rising level of Weak Bearish () stocks. With only 7% of TSX stocks currently in a Weak Bearish trend, we know that patience is in full order. Until the level of Weak Bearish stocks increases the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio will be in hibernation with the bears.

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