Healthcare Service Group

Defensive investors have taken to the health care sector again. The Stock Trends Picks of the Week reports have been active with U.S. health care stocks over recent weeks. Top among the year-to-date performers are medical supplies stocks - up 5.4%, second only to the YTD performance of gold stocks. Less glamorous suppliers like Healthcare Services Group (NASDAQ:HCSG), a supplier of linen, maintenance and food services to nursing homes and hospitals, is a worthy trend moving stock. HCSG ranks as the longest running bullish stock on the NASDAQ, clocking in 241 weeks as a Stock Trends Bullish stock. It has been trading in a range over the past two quarters, but today's move to $24 could tip investors to a new bullish move. Look for a buy signal if the stock scales its 52-week high, $24.45.

Yamana dips - buy

Yamana Gold (TSX:YRI) has slipped 6% today and is currently trading at the $15.40 level. The stock is a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover, a trade entry signal. Investors looking at this lagging big cap gold stock can buy on the dip. Gold stocks have considerable price momentum working in favour of the sector. Today's gold weakness is a good opportunity.

Appled out

Even Steve Jobs' predictably energized introduction of Apple's new movie rental service and razor thin laptop swayed the market little from an increasingly bearish temperament. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) turned Weak Bullish in Stock Trends most recent report, and today's drop to the $167 level makes the alert sound even stronger. Tech stocks are off their impressive highs of the final quarter of 2007 and the Nasdaq 100 is now threatening to dip to 1,800 - a remaining support level. Fellow tech darling Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is also a new Weak Bullish stock - Stock Trends' earliest sell alert.

Junior oil stocks pumping trading profits

Select oil and gas stocks have shone in recent weeks. Some of them are previous Stock Trends Picks of the Week like Birchcliff Energy (TSX:BIR), Peerless Energy (TSX:PRY.A), and Tristar Oil & Gas (TSX:TOG). BIR screamed to another high yesterday, closing at $8.99 - a 73% gain since it was a Stock Trends pick in early November. PRY.A also hit a new high , and TOG advanced another 6% Monday to close at $14.43. The stock was a Pick of the Week on November 23 at $11.13. Oil and gas stocks now in the Stock Trends focus include Arsenal Energy (TSX:AEI), Berens Energy (TSX:BEN), Celtic Exploration (TSX:CLT), Rider Resources (TSX:RRZ), and Vero Energy (TSX:VRO).

Market trends signal downturn

Stock Trends now signals Bearish Crossovers for the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Index, and the S&P 100 Index. They join recent Bearish Crossovers of other benchmark indices: the S&P 500 Index, and the Wilshire 5000 Index (See Stock Trends U.S Indices report). The price trend of these indices no longer diverges from the trend breadth of North American exchanges, represented in our analysis as the Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio, a gage that has signaled substantive bearish sentiment since the summer.

Low volume gainer - SXC Health Solutions

Stock market technicians know the importance of trading volume. Active trading fuels price movement. However, in some conditions price advances under low volume of trading conditions alerts us to possible breakout stocks. Stock Trends monitors for these situations in the weekly Low Volume Gains reports.

This week two TSX stocks draw out attention, one of which is SXC Health Solutions (TSX:SXC), an IT company supporting the health management industry. The health sector has come to the stage in recent weeks, primarily in the U.S. reports. SXC fits into the sector's strength, and its tepid price momentum is developing. The stock closed at $15.04, a 5.5% advance on the week, with the Stock Trends low volume indicator. As a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock SXC is a good candidate for a bullish turn once the market is drawn to this ember.

Picks good as gold

Stock Trends focuses on stocks that are changing trend from bearish to bullish, as defined by the relationship between the 13-week and 40-week moving average of price. Expanding price momentum and volume alerts us to particular stocks every week. Often these Stock Trends Picks of the Week generate timely signals for trade entry.

Investors in gold stocks will have taken to the signals for big cap golds in the latter half of last year. Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week in late August at $34.71. It closed Friday at $52.26 (a 51% gain). Also a pick in late August was Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM), now trading 39% higher. The end of October brought out other golds in the Picks of the Week report: Kinross Gold (TSX:K), now up 33%; Goldcorp (TSX:G), advanced 20%, and the iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Fund (TSX:XGD), now a 17% gain. The most recent big cap gold stock in the TSX Picks of the Week Report, Yamana Gold (TSX:YRI) showed up in the January 4th report. It advanced 14% last week.

Gold fund currency play

The price of gold is once again front page news. Although the inflation adjusted high of bullion is a considerable leap from its current level ($881.70), the nominal record has captured the speculator's podium. In the old days unsophisticated retail investors were left with few real alternatives for investing in the gold cycle other than buying gold stocks. The modern age of exchange traded funds has improved the offering. Gold bullion funds now attract plenty of trading. Canadian investors, however, should be aware of the effects of currency fluctuations when they consider buying into these assets. Traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange is the iShares Comex Gold Fund (TSX:IGT), denominated in Canadian funds. As the value of the Canadian dollar advanced through much of last year the relative return of the U.S. dollar denominated asset was discounted. There is always currency risk in holding assets denominated in another currency, just as investors would experience in investing in the AMEX-listed iShares Comex Gold Trust (AMEX:IAU) once they repatriate the asset. For Canadian investors a firming of the U.S dollar is now helping the situation. The adjacent graph charts the 13-week price momentum spread between the TSX-listed Comex Gold fund and the AMEX-listed Comex Gold trust. It shows the discount of IGT dissipating over the past two months, now turning in favour of the Canadian listed fund. Bullion price advances in the context of a stable currency exchange give Canadian investors more of an opportunity to reap a full return on the commodity.

More solar flares

Another of the recent Stock Trends Picks of the Week broke out today. Canadian Solar Inc (NASDAQ:CSIQ) surged above $17 and is now trading at $16.30, a 45% gain on the day. CSIQ was a featured solar stock in the Stock Trends reports a couple of weeks ago as its changing trend and building price momentum brought it to our attention.

Stock Trends Report - Canadian Solar Inc (NASDAQ:CSIQ)

Solar flares

Solar stocks are shining. First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) jumped 35% this morning. Also reflecting the rays is Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ:ESLR). It reached a high of $17.55 in early trading - a 25% jump from the previous day. ESLR was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week recently, along with a number of other solar stocks. Stock Trends often illuminates on these sector and industry trends and allows investors to identify breakout points. This group of solar picks is a recent example.

Stock Trends Report: Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ:ESLR):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=ESLR-Q&page=streport

Google trend trading

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) has been a legendary stock since the earliest days of its IPO. It has not disappointed even the most hyped expectations. GOOG added to its golden image with today's close above $700. The model performance of the stock makes for a wonderful chart.

For Stock Trends followers, though, the first cue for entry in this winner was a year ago when GOOG had its most recent Bullish Crossover. The stock suffered a slight summer cold in the previous period (it went Stock Trends Bearish in mid-July 2006), so the Bullish Crossover signal in October 20, 2006 was the first reversal of trend for GOOG. The stock was one of the Stock Trends NASDAQ Picks of the Week then (at $459). Although just about any entry point has been swell to date for this darling stock, the summer period in 2006 was challenging enough to advise an exit - however temporary it turned out to be. Here the Stock Trends indicators helped direct investors when price trend shifted positively. Trading with the trend is the Stock Trends modus operandi.

Stock Trends history- Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/history/?symbol=GOOG-Q

Penn West Energizes

Big news on the Canadian oil patch today is the announcement that Penn West Energy Trust (TSX:PWT.UN) is entering a $3.6-billion dollar friendly takeover of Canetic Resources Trust (TSX:CNE.UN) - a combination that would create a considerable light oil producer in Western Canada. Both these trusts are already engaged in separate takeovers, including Canetics buyout of Titan Exploration Ltd. (TSX:TTN.A). Recent price action of PWT.UN and CNE.UN has brought both trusts into the Stock Trends screens for shifting trends: both stocks changed to Weak Bearish in last weeks report.

Stock Trends Report - Penn West Energy Trust (TSX:PWT.UN)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=PWT.UN-T&page=streport

Stock Trends Report - Canetic Resources Trust (TSX:CNE.UN)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=CNE.UN-T&page=streport

Bearish trend breadth

The current level of TSX Bull/Bear Ratio (0.4) was last plumbed in October 2002. We will recall that moment as the bottom of a 2-year bear market and the beginning of a tremendous 5-year bullish trend. But the current reading is more reminiscent of two other periods of time: the second quarter of 1998 and Q1 of 2000. In each of these periods there was a significant divergence in the signals of the Stock Trends TSX Bull/Bear Ratio and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. While the Bull/Bear Ratio then scraped below the 0.5 marker, the benchmark index was climbing to new highs. With the index presently doing a final chin-up to once again approach all-time highs, Stock Trends followers should now be wondering if the conflicting spirit of the Stock Trends sentiment indicator - a measure of market breadth - is advising extreme caution. Considering the subsequent downdraft of 1998 and 2000, prudence is advisable.

TSX Bull vs. Bears - Graph of Distribution of Stock Trends indicators:
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stbvb

Gildan joins S&P/TSX 60 Index

Standard & Poors made the long-awaited changes to the S&P/TSX 60 Index yesterday, announcing that Alcan Inc. (TSX:AL), a victim of global consolidation, and two of the index's market-cap weaklings - Cott Corp. (TSX:BCB) and Celestica Inc. (TSX:CLS) - will be replaced. Incoming stocks are InMet Mining (TSX:IMN), Uranium One (TSX:UUU), and Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL). GIL is a considerable trend improvement over BCB in the consumer category. It has been a Stock Trends Bullish stock since early October 2006. The stock today reached an early session 52-week high of $43.48 as index portfolio managers move to adjust their holdings. GIL was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week on October 5, 2006 at $27.53 (post-split), and would rank as one of the top 6 stocks in the Stock Trends S&P/TSX 60 Relative Strength Rankings with its current RSI of 114.

Stock Trends Report - Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=GIL-T&page=streport

Stock Trends has ear to the ground

The Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading strategy is market driven. When the market moves toward a broad bullish trend the portfolio is active with new buys. Periods of activity reflect the general bullish sentiment. Tides are rising.

Stock Trends followers are well aware, though, that the mechanical trading system has been largely dormant since the first quarter of 2007. Although the TSX stretched toward new highs into the summer and rallied after the August correction, the trend landscape for the Stock Trends trading system has been unfavourable. Currently, only 30% of TSX stocks are Bullish. The market's volatility over the period since the ST Portfolio downshifted has generated profits for some trading systems, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index 6% advance since Q1 has not been without considerable risk. The cash position of the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio reflects the prudent steps of a trader with an ear to the ground.

Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading history (1993-present):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/stp-tsx1.php

Open Text opening

Tech stocks are generating deserved interest among investors. TSX investors have a limited range of options beyond the marquee name of Research in Motion (TSX:RIM). However, Open Text (TSX:OTC) is on the Stock Trends watch list. The stock will be a Bullish Crossover in the coming week after its staccato advance since mid-August. Trading volume in OTC has been weak or moderate over the past couple of weeks, but tech momentum could help swell the stock toward new highs. Look for another push in the coming week.

Stock Trends Report: Open Text (TSX:OTC):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=OTC-T&page=streport

Black Monday Eve

Where were you on the eve of October 19, 1987 - Black Monday? Perhaps the date does not stir the same emotions as, say, September 11, 2001, but rest assured there is a solemn population of survivors of that cataclysmic day 20-years ago. The 23% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Index that day ranks as the most dramatic move in the stock market in modern history. No other major market move comes close. It was an historic day that shook the foundations of our financial system and left many participants shell shocked.

I was no more than a market observer at the time, but the event left a mark on me. As the 20th anniversary of Black Monday hits us tomorrow we should all pause to consider the potential for another Black Swan - an outlier event of seemingly unimaginable possibility. Important to current investors to recall is the ominous feeling that hovered over investors on the weekend preceding October 19, 1987. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped 10% in the final days of the previous week and there was palpable concern heading into the weekend. The festering sore did indeed bust, and we should be wary of current day infections that have an equally dangerous potential to cripple the market.

For my part Black Monday Eve was tempered, indeed softened, by a weekend flight with my new born daughter as I introduced her to her grandparents for the first time. A reminder that life goes on - even in the midst of catastrophe.

Peerless Energy

Another recent Stock Trends TSX Pick of the Week,
Peerless Energy (TSX:PRY.A) is advancing in the
heightened oil & gas sector. The stock is now trading
at $4.30 and will be a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover
in the coming week.

Stock Trends Report - Peerless Energy (TSX:PRY.A)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=PRY.A-T

Birchcliff energizes

A recent Stock Trends TSX Pick of the Week, Birchcliff
Energy (TSX:BIR) is surging above the $5.25 level.
With crude oil prices approaching an
inflation-adjusted all-time high, it's hard to avoid
energy exposure. Volume of trading in BIR surged on
Friday and remains high as the stock moves toward
resistance that hovers above. The stock hit a high of
$5.50 in early June before falling off to a late
summer low of $3.70. Look for BIR to show its bullish
potential over the coming days.

Stock Trends Report - Birchcliff Energy (TSX:BIR):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=BIR-T&page=streport

Hyper-trading

Technical analysis is all about putting current prices
into an historical context. Market technicians earn
their keep by comparing market conditions now with
conditions in the past, making the assumption that
patterns repeat themselves. But some things are
different. One notable difference is the market
participation - most specifically the number of
transactions that are executed. A decade ago the
average weekly number of transactions on the Toronto
Stock Exchange was about 200,000. Now the number of
weekly trades is 10 times that level. Last week there
were 2,572,170 trades on the TSX. The recent 5-year
bull run has much to thank in this heightened level of
trading. However, it remains to be seen how such an
active market will turn on itself if things go bad.

Petrobank on it

Among TSX-listed energy stocks Petrobank Energy and
Resources (TSX:PBG) has blazed its own profitable
trail for investors. It has outperformed the S&P/TSX
Composite Index by 48% over the past three months and
continues its assault on new highs. With crude oil
tipping $86 the sky may be the limit for PBG. The
stock was a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover at the end
of 2004, back when shares traded for $2.20. Today's
high of $45.18 shows us the sector, despite its
tempered performance as a group, can sprout some
high-flying picks.

Stock Trends Report - Petrobank Energy and Resources
(TSX:PBG):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=PBG-T

Dow Theory 2007

Looking for cracks in the stock market's foundation is
a full time job. No surprise that market bears dust
off the Dow Theory to support their prevailing fear
that this Goldilocks market is not without some cold
porridge. A pillar of Dow Theory, however dated its
precepts, is that the Dow Transports should support
the Dow Industrials. What's good for the industrial
workhorses of America should be good for their
carriers. Globalization helps and hinders the theory,
but, in a theoretical sense this correlation has great
merit.

The current divergence of the two groups makes for
unsettling evidence of a precarious market moment as
we hurtle toward the October gauntlet. Stock Trends
followers would have noted the early divergence back
on August 3 when the Dow Transportation Index turned
Weak Bullish. The Transports turned Stock Trends
Bearish at the end of September, making the current
Stock Trends Bullish indicator of the Dow Industrial
Index a blaring contradiction with the Dow Transports'
Bearish indicator.

However, the same divergence occurred in the late
summer of 2006. The Dow Industrials pulled through
that period, later to scale 12,000 in fine fashion.
The Dow Transport Index has a ways to go to reverse
the Bearish trend and recover to its previous high.
The coming months will be telling.

Stock Trends Report - Dow Jones Transport Index:
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=DJT-I

Stock Trends Report - Dow Jones Industrial Index:
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=DJI-I

Husky's Bullish run ends

Since early 2003 Husky Energy Inc (TSX:HSE) has been
in a Stock Trends Bullish trend. That 246-week period
ended last week when the stock was tagged as a Bearish
Crossover - a signal that the 13-week moving average
trend line has dropped below the 40-week moving
average trend line. HSE is currently underperforming
the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 6% over the past
quarter, joining the sub-par performance of other
Canadian integrated oils.

Stock Trends Report - Husky Energy Inc. (TSX:HSE):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=HSE-T

A noble energy stock

Among the NYSE Stock Trends Bullish stocks Noble
Energy Inc.(NYSE:NBL) has delivered investors ample
return on its four-plus year trend. Last week's heavy
trading showed NBL may have more to give. Today the
stock sits above $75 and has advanced 25% since its
brief flirtation with the Stock Trends Weak Bullish
indicator at the end of August. A Weak Bullish
indicator alerts investors to a critical support area,
a signal to monitor for either selling on further
downside movement or accumulation on signs of price
support. NBL found support along the 40-week moving
average trend line (Stock Trends primary trend line)
and has rallied to today's new high. Energy bulls will
do well to stick with NBL.

Stock Trends Report - Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE:NBL):
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=NBL-N&page=streport

Tim Bits, anyone?

Canadian Stock Trends followers probably felt deprived
when Tim Hortons (TSX:THI) went public last year.
Without a trading history, and absent the Stock Trends
indicators, THI did not fit our stock picking
criteria. Alas, its time has come. THI is now a Stock
Trends Pick of the Week selection. The stock has moved
above $36 and has potential to regain some lost
ground. Look for THI to hold above $36 with improved
trading volume.

Stock Trends Report - Tim Hortons (TSX:THI)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=THI-T&page=streport

Canadian equities attractive

Although markets in Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and
Brazil are performance leaders in the past quarter,
Canadian stocks have earned a handsome commodity
premium for investors. In U.S. dollar terms Canadian
equities advanced 7.6% in the last quarter. The
faltering U.S. dollar will continue to attract
international capital to Canadian equities.

A Ranking of Global Equity markets by Stock Trends
13-week Relative Strength Indicator:

http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/indexes/?indexgrp=D

TSX Group finds traction

A sign of the times for the commodity strength of the
Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Group (TSX:X) has hit our
trend alerts. The stock outperformed the S&P/TSX
Composite Index by 14% in the third quarter and is now
trading above $48, a resistance level that dates from
the May sell-off. Bullish sentiment for materials and
energy stocks will help drive X higher.

Stock Trends Report - TSX Group (TSX:X)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=X-T&page=streport

ZCL Composites advances

After a couple of weeks of relatively light trading,
ZCL Composites (TSX:ZCL) jumped 10% to close at
$12.69. ZCL, a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock, was
notable in last week's Stock Trends Top TSX Low Volume
Gains report. Today's trading volume was brisk, more
than the entire five trading days of last week. ZCL
has moved above resistance at $12 and is in a good
position to continue the breakout toward the $14 level.

Stock Trends Report - ZCL Composites (TSX:ZCL)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=ZCL-T&page=streport

Johnson & Johnson healthy again?

Consumer staple and healthcare stocks will become
increasingly popular should the stock market stumble.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is a Stock Trends Weak
Bearish stock, an indication that the stock has an
improving bill of health. JNJ is now battling with
resistance at $66. Should it clear this level
investors may be rewarded with a nice move back to the
highs of a year ago ($69.41).

Stock Trends Report - Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=JNJ-N

Dow Jones Industrial Index scales 14,000, but broad sentiment still bearish

The bulls are pumped about the Dow Jones Industrial
Index bursting through 14,000 yesterday. However,
although the absolute level of the index may be at new
all-time highs, the shallow depth of the broad market
sentiment gives investors plenty of reason to remain
sceptical of the future of this rally. Currently, the
Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio for the New York Stock
Exchange is 0.6, signalling that a vast majority of
stocks are trending in Stock Trends Bearish territory.
Over 50% of trending NYSE stocks are strong Bearish.
The aggregate distribution of the Stock Trends
indicators warns us of the fragile footing the current
rally rests on.

NYSE Stock Trends indicator Distribution:

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stsummary&x=N

Shine on you crazy Platinum

Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (TSX:PTM) has busted through $4, and is now trading at $4.24. The bullish trend has been in place for several months and could provide an even better return for this Stock Trends Portfolio holding. PTM was a portfolio buy November 23 at $2.20. 

How Stella got her groove back...and kept it

When it comes to Stella-Jones Inc. (TSX:SJ), investors should be impressed with its Bullish stamina. SJ ranks at the top of the Toronto Stock Exchange in terms of Stock Trends Bullish longevity - logging in an incredible 255 weeks to date. In case you have never heard of SJ, today's Report on Business in The Globe and Mail can help:

 

AN UNORTHODOX POWER PLAY

Ever wonder where all those utility pools and railway ties that line our highways and byways come from? Stella-Jones Inc. of Montreal.

The only public company of its kind in North America was rated "buy," with a price target of $42.50 in initial coverage by Desjardins Securities. The stock is unchanged at $36.03 on the TSX Thursday, after coming from $17.50 last summer.

SJ was founded in 1993 out of Domtar Inc.'s wood preserving assets. Since 2003, it has spent about $110-million on acquisitions that have generated new sales of $160-million, winning a 15 per cent market share in North America. Running at a rate of one acquisition per year, SJ is the industry's leading consolidator, says analyst Pierre Lacroix.

He likes the story both for its internal and growth-by-acquisition potential. Two years ago, SJ expanded into the United States, which is expected to be the main growth platform, including acquisitions, in coming years, he predicts.

Given its growth potential, he is "confident that SJ will be able to maintain high valuation multiples in the next 12 months."

 It seems this bullish trend may reach epic proportions.

 

Stock Trends Report on SJ:

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=SJ-T

Toromont Industries advances

Recent strength in industrial stocks has translated into an improved outlook for Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX:TIH). TIH advanced 10% over the last week, and is now one of the Stock Trends New Weakening Bearish stocks. The stock's move about resistance at $25 signals that the stock may move to its August highs above $26.

Stock Trends Report - TSX:TIH
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=TIH-T

Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading results

The Stocks Trends TSX Portfolio trading strategy has been active for over 13-years. It has generated 43.5% annualized return on average investment (See http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stport ). However, this result is not the full story. It is always beneficial for investors to look at the trading statistics of their portfolio record. This analysis reveals the true character of the trading strategy.

The ST Portfolio equity line (see below) shows the path to its current level. In the 690 weeks since inception there have been 393 positions taken to date. The number of winning trades (159) gives this mechanical trading strategy a 40% success rate on individual trades. This may seem low to inexperienced investors, but many successful traders have winning percentages below 50%. Indeed, professional traders expect losses – they are a part of the business of trading. Generally, traders manage to succeed against these odds because they limit position losses and let profits run.

Stock Trends TSX Portfolio Trading Statistics

• Total Gain $240,912 (577%)
• # of weeks 690
• Total # of trades 393
• Winning Trades 159
• Losing Trades 234
• Winning % 40%
• Average # of weeks each position held 7.3
• Average # of positions held each week 4.2
• Average Gain $3,028 (30%)
• Average Loss $1,028 (-10%)
• Average Investment $41,737
• Average trade $10,000
• Maximum Drawdown (%) -34.2
• Largest Gain $40,880 (409%)
• Largest Loss $3,542 (-35%)
• Maximum losing trades in Succession 12
• Standard Deviation 7.7%
• Ulcer Index 9.8
• Profit factor 2.00
• Pessimistic Return Ratio 1.97

The Stock Trends Portfolio gives an example of this relationship. The average return on winning trades is 30%, while the average loss is 10%. Although there is some variability in returns – the standard deviation is 7.7% - the sporadic achievement of some hyper-return trades generates the desired positive result. The skewed distribution of returns shows a clustering two standard deviations around breakeven. The vast majority of trades cancel each other out, leaving the portfolio returns determined by the balance of high return trades versus the limited losses of the losing trades. Traders will recognize this pattern: managing losses of frequent infield hits in between scoring periodic “home runs”. Some of highly profitable trades are documented in the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading history found at ( http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/stp-tsx1.php ).



An important consideration for traders is drawdown, or the drain on equity that invariably comes when trading goes sour. Indeed, even with an exceptional winning percentage of 75% there is a 10% probability that a trader will experience a loss run of 5 (See Van K. Tharp’s article on randomness and streaks at http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_update/Weekly_241_oct_12_2005.htm ).

That means that even the most prescient stockpicker will face drawdowns. The Stock Trends TSX Portfolio trading record shows the longest loss run (Jan 1997 to May 1997) was 12 trades but only resulted in a 4% drawdown. However, a run of 10 losses lead toward the biggest drawdown (-34%) in mid-1999. As the graph of the ST equity line shows, the portfolio was in a prolonged drawdown phase from mid-1997 until early 2000.

These areas of drawdown are measured by the Ulcer Index. The Ulcer Index was originally devised by Peter Martin in 1987 and described in The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds: Winning Strategies for Mutual Fund Investors (See http://www.tangotools.com/ui/ui.htm ). The UI differs from Standard Deviation in that it measures risk only on the downside and exposes the risk of sequences of losses. As described by Martin: “Ulcer Index measures the depth and duration of percentage drawdowns in price from earlier highs.”

As a comparison of drawdown, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is shown with its Ulcer Index graphed along with the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio Ulcer Index. The ST Portfolio managed to provide risk protection against the considerable 5-year drawdown after the September 2000 market collapse. This shows us that the buy-and-hold approach exposes investors to higher levels of risk compared to market timing trading systems. Stock Trends promotes the use of trend analysis in the timing of trades not only to generate superior returns, but to also limit downside risk.

Platinum Group shines

The shares of Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (TSX:PTM) advanced 18% today, closing at $2.84. This is a welcome move for holders of PTM as the breakout of early Q4 2006 seemed more promising than it delivered since. Until this week the $2.50 mark was setting up as a stubborn resistance level - the prospect of a trading range ever more looming. This week's trading has opened up new ground, and given new legs for this trade. PTM was a Bullish Crossover and a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio BUY on November 23 at $2.37. Trading was active among small retail investors this week, with almost 1,000 transactions. However, trading volume was relatively thin (about half the previous week's volume) considering the big price move. Look for bigger stakes to add to the PTM move.

Stock Trends Report on PTM:
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=PTM-T

RIM-ed out

It was a nice ride, but Research in Motion Ltd. (TSX:RIM,NASDAQ:RIMM) has hit the Stock Trends Portfolio sell trigger, closing below its stop loss ($150.41 stop). Volatility this week has taken the fun out of this holding. Closing today at $142.67, investors are concerned about the shifting landscape for the company as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) bids for a consumer telecommunications presence. Word of falling Blackberry prices tip squeezed margins going forward. Whatever the case, stock price volatility and diminishing price momentum has served up the exit door for RIM. The stock holding had its beginnings on September 21 at $97.50, so the return has been satisfactory.

Agriculture chemical stocks fertile

Amid the drop in crude oil prices and the inevitable strain on energy stocks, the market has found good reason to be bullish on the global agriculture economy. Agriculture chemical stocks, in particular, have been especially bullish through the end of 2006...and have piled on even more gains in the new year. Agrium Inc. (TSX:AGU, NYSE:AGU) scaled $40 today reaching another new high. Monsato Co. (NYSE:MON) added another 5% to eclipse its 52-week high. Also hitting new highs were Terra Industries (NYSE:TRA), Bunge Ltd. (NYSE:BG), Dupont (NYSE:DD), and Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. (TSX:HF).

HF was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week and TSX Portfolio buy a year ago at $3.09, although the trade was stopped out on volatility in the spring ($3.70). HF has remained a ST Bullish stock and today's move to a new high of $5.15 promises further advances.

Stock Trends Report - TSX:HF:
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=HF-T

Resverlogix surges again

Stock Trends followers will remember Resverlogix Corp. (TSX:RVX) as a Pick of the Week stock on November 23. It rallied that week on high volume, closing at $8.19. The biotech breakout was first revealed last autumn as a number of pharmaceutical stocks hit the Stock Trends alerts. RVX surged almost 15% today to close at $17.88.


Stock Trends Report:
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=RVX-T&page=streport&Go=Go

Theratechnologies jumps 79%

Theratechnologies Inc. (TSX:TH) powered to a high of $5.05 today after the company announced positive clinical results for its HIV-related visceral fat treatment. Volume of trading in TH surged to over 3.6-million by midday. TH had been a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holding until it was stopped out at $2.52 on November 30th. Evidently, the trade could have scored a lot better than the 5% gain it managed for the TH holding.

For a complete trading history of the Stock Trends TSX Portfolio see http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/stp-tsx1.php

Stock Trends Report for Theratechnologies Inc. TH
http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=TH-T&page=streport

RIM turbulent, but in motion

Compared to the first two months of the final quarter of 2006, December has been challenging for Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ:RIMM, TSX:RIM) shareholders. After rallying in powerhouse fashion to its 52-week high in the last week of November, the stock hit resistance and retreated almost 12% last week. A support rally closed out the week, with the stock closing near the top of its weekly tick. Trading will again be active and volatile this week as the company announces its Q3 earnings. RIM is a current Stock Trends Portfolio holding and has returned 56% since its BUY signal on September 21.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=RIM-T

 

Boeing, Boing!

After two relatively short months in the Stock Trends bear pit Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) joyously returns to a ST Bullish trend. The Bullish Crossover (13-week moving average has moved above the 40-week moving average) makes BA a Stock Trends short-listed stock. BA's previous bull trend expired after an impressive 168-week run that commenced in the summer of 2003.

 

Things have picked up nicely again. Of Dow Industrial stocks, only Dupont (NYSE:DD) has performed better over the past three months. BA was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week selection on November 10 at $85.62, and remains a selection this week with its Bullish Crossover. The stock reached a high of $92.05 last week, but retreated a bit early this week. Today's close was $87.94.

 

Boeing's ST Report:

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=BA-N&page=streport

Dow 12,000? Big Deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index closed above 12,000 today for the first time. This achievement has been heralded by the financial media in the usual euphoric manner, delivering both excited investors eager to join in on the rally and fretting pessimists ready to bail before it implodes. But the 12,000 marker should be put into a proper monetary context, since the DJ Industrial is a price index. Adjusting the index for inflation reveals that today's close is 15% short of the inflation adjusted 2000 high.

Revealing for investors that do not consider the effects of inflation on the value of their equity assets is the comparison of compound rates of return for the Dow in nominal and real terms. In the post-WWII era the annual compound return on the DJI index is 7.3% (excluding dividends). The real compound rate of return is only 3.2%. Of course, real returns on the index should include dividends, but the effect of inflation on the value of the asset is not diminished. For the 19-year period since the days before Black Monday in 1987 the compound rate of return (nominal) of the index, inclusive of dividends, is an impressive 12%. But applying the CPI price deflator yields a 8.6% inflation adjusted return over this incredible bull market.

The advance of the stock market will always be a battle against alternative assets. And it will always be handicapped by monetary debasement. Investors should remember this important context when making judgments about the nominal price level of equity markets. Dow 12,000? Big deal.

The graph above shows the real (inflation adjusted) level of the DJ Industrial Index at 10-year October intervals over the past 60 years. This logarithmic representation misses the volatility of the index, most appreciably the highs of early 2000, but the trend of the real price level puts the advance of the U.S. stock market in a better context.

Telecom hits new highs

After testing its 40-week moving average during the summer months, Telecom HOLDRS (AMEX:TTH) is back on track. It's ralling point was almost two months ago when it surged from $29 to $31, but the current high is breaking as a resistance point. Consumer stocks in general are doing well, but a strong move by telecom stocks should be a very good sign. TTH closed today at $32.40, as its performance continues to best the market.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=TTH-A

Gold stocks champion the market still

The performance of gold stocks in recent weeks shows us that investors have not abandoned their attachment to the commodity's bullish fate. Trading in Goldcorp (G) was again active, although the stock only advanced 1%. Goldcorp's courting of Glamis has been measured by the market, and the verdict is acceptable. Most importantly, the gold sector remains the market leader on the TSX, outperforming the broad market over the last 3-months by 11%. In the context of the ascendancy of this important commodity, it is again worthwhile to review the gold sector's relative performance to the equally important energy sector. Although both sectors are drivers of the TSX, they have a long-term pattern of inverse correlation. The graph above shows us that gold stock's relative performance has wrestled the lead from the formerly ascendant energy sector. This shift dates from about 52-weeks ago. The commodity currency for the two years prior to September 2005 was crude oil, but the pendulum has again shifted back to precious metals. Gold stocks are sparkling because it is their time to sparkle.

Rentcash breakout continues

Summer holidays over...back to the market!

 

After reporting stellar earnings for the fourth quarter, Rentcash Inc. shares (TSX:RCS) surged today by over 7%. RCS advanced 26% last week to the $7 level, bringing it to Stock Trends attention. The breakout coincided with the Bullish Crossover and triggered the stock's inclusion in last week's Picks of the Week report. RCS was also a Stock Trends Portfolio BUY last week at $7. Today's high was $7.80.

Bidding heats up on Canada Southern Petroleum

Sometimes corporate acquisitions are simple - a done deal at midnight. Sometimes the card playing moves on into the wee hours of the morning. Canada Southern Petroleum (TSX:CSW) seems to be holding the cards on its potential acquisition. The bidding for CSW has been raised to US$13 as PetroCanada (TSX:PCA) gets more aggressive in its interest in CSW. PCA's original May bid of US$7.50 has now been raised 73% thanks to active interest from Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSX:COS.UN) and Canadian Superior Energy (TSX:SNG).

 

The original buyout offer triggered a Stock Trends Portfolio buy of CSW on June 8th at CDN $10.18. CSW trades 15% up today at CDN $15.17. Trading on the news sometimes pays off when the news just keeps coming. It's always nice to be wanted.... CSW shareholders are enjoying the popularity of the day.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=CSW-T

 

Smucker jams it up

Some consumer staple stocks have picked up recently, and there is no better morning staple than jam. J.M. Smucker Co (NYSE:SJM) has rallied over the past few weeks as the market responds to strong financial results. Given the move to defensive stocks in some quarters, SJM's growing price momentum spells bread and butter for value investors. The changing trend situation has also made the stock a recent Stock Trends Pick of the Week.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=SJM-N

Bullion ETFs vs. Gold stocks

For much of the early part of this year the iShares Comex Gold Trust ETF (TSX:IGT) under-performed the iShares S&P/TSX Gold Index ETF (TSX:XGD), but with the plummeting sector turning investor sentiment sour, investors in gold stocks and XGD are taking relatively more off the table. Measured by Stock Trends 13-week Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), the comparative price performance has now turned in IGT's favour.

Fortis utility

Rising volatility is factoring into sector moves. The Volatility Index (VIX) is now up over 25% in the last 13-weeks. Some investors may see this as a sign to move to defensive stocks. One TSX utility stock that is building price momentum is Fortis Inc. (TSX:FTS). It advanced 11% this week and has shifted to our Weak Bearish trend category. Current 13-week Stock Trends RSI is 108, ranking it highest among TSX utility stocks. Unusually high volume punctuated this week's move.

 

See : http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=FTS-T

 

 

Broad correction on TSX

The TSX suffered considerably this week as the fear of a commodity blowout sent many investors to the exit. As a sample of this broad selling the Stock Trends distribution of Bullish stocks shifted considerably toward Weak Bullish. The S&P/TSX Composite, the big cap S&P/TSX 60 Index, as well as the S&P/TSX Midcap and Smallcap Indexes all lit up us Weak Bullish this week. Most telling of the breadth of the selloff is that 28% of trending stocks are now Weak Bullish. This is an important moment for the TSX as investors will look for a signal that the commodity cycle, while partially deflated, is still in swing.

 

 

Bulls & Bears graph

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stbvb

 

May begins TSX symbol changes

Yes, the Toronto Stock Exchange has begun its about-face on the symbol extensions it introduced in 2004 - the ones that denoted specific subordinate, non-voting, restricted-voting, and multiple voting stocks. Stock Trends must endeavour to manage these changes again. The schedule for these symbol changes is published by the TSX at http://www.tsx.com/en/pdf/SymbolChangeList.pdf

BlackRock jackpot

It has been a long and joyful ride for BlackRock Ventures (TSX:BVI) shareholders, but today caps off the bullish trend with a cherry. Shell Canada has made an offer of $24 share for BVI, putting the buyout at $2.4-billion. The stock jumped on the news today and is now trading at $23.75, up 26% from Friday's close. Stock Trends followers will remember BVI's breakout in early 2005 as the stock was a Pick of the Week and a Stock Trends Portfolio buy on January 13, 2005 (at $8.80). That trade was stopped out at $9.22 on some volatility, but BVI has remained bullish through the stocks rallies and retreats. For those that stuck with BlackRock there is good reason to celebrate today.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=BVI-T

Potash Corp turns bullish

Although Potash Corp. (TSX:POT) was playing with a trading range as it recovered from its bearish trend in the later half of 2005, the stock is showing signs of moving past resistance at $115. The secondary trend line for POT has moved above the long-term trend line, an event signalled by the Stock Trends Bullish Crossover. The newly Bullish stock is currently out-performing the S&P/TSX Composite by 9% over the last quarter and could be poised for a summer move.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=POT-T

Exxon not that big in market's eye

For all the uproar from the ever corporate-bashing segment of the American leftist interest groups you would think Exxon was delivering more to the owners of this stock than it has lately. Yes, record profits continue for the company amid high crude oil prices and domestic refining bottlenecks...but investors holding XOM could hardly be making "outrageous" returns on Exxon in the first quarter of 2006. Indeed, the stock is basically performing on par with the S&P 500. The Stock Trends 13-week Relative Strength Indicator for XOM is 101. Big corporate profits are not enough sometimes. The scale may be there, but the market thinks XOM's potential is not atmospheric.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=XOM-N&page=streport

Corriente blasts past $7

Corriente Resources (TSX:CTQ) is a familiar stock to Stock Trends followers. It had its Bullish Crossover back in September 2005 and was a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio buy at $3.49. Although the CTQ holding was stopped-out at $4.92 in early March, the stock has remained bullish since. The last two weeks have been especially good as CTQ has rallied aggressively - the new listing on the AMEX has improved the company's visibility with U.S. investors. Today's 10 % gain pushes the stock into new rarefied territory. CTQ closed at $7.25.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=CTQ-T&page=streport

Rite Aid

Consumer stocks are strong in a number of segments, and movement in pharmacy retailer Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) is indicative of investor interest. RAD was particularly active last week, with 48.7-million shares trading in over 31,500 trades. The stocks current rally began in earnest in early March, with its move to $4. Trading at $4.30 today, this Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock is on our radar. It has been on the NYSE Picks of the Week report for the past two weeks.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=RAD-N

Party like it's 1999

Maybe it was all too famously premature back at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps investors were giddy with the calendar as much as the emerging technologies that promised so much. The Internet bubble lives in ignominy, but six years later that promise if coming to steady fruition. Soon enough a world of content will be coming through the pipes and consumers are hungry for the culture and interaction being served up on the Internet. Disney's (NYSE:DS) announcement about Internet content delivery is part of a major shift in the way consumers will access their favourite programs. To borrow from the anthem of Prince, Internet stocks are "going to party like its 1999" all over again.

 

Evidence of the heated trading activity is found in the Internet Infrastructure HOLDRS (AMEX:IIH). Over the past month IIH has advanced aggressively on high volume. It ranks highly with a Stock Trends RSI of 121, and has made 52-week highs in each of the last four weeks. Last week IIH traded over 1500 times - far more than its usual level and twice as much as the previous week. Investors want a piece of the action and IIH is attracting those that want to play the industry. IIH was a Stock Trends Bullish Crossover at the end of December when it traded at $3.86. The issue trades at the $5 level now.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=IIH-A&page=streport

 

U.S. long-term rates recovering

The dire prospect of an inverted yield curve presaging a coming recession is a market concern. So a correction on the long end of the curve is a promising sign for stock market bulls. The easy money period has come to a close. The Fed's steady rise in the discount rate has helped correct a distorted debt market over the last few years, and it is time yields moved back to more normal levels.

Although the stock market has yet to come to terms with this, the movement of long-term rates is growth-positive. Currently, the 10-year Treasury Yield Index leads the U.S. indexes for market performance over the first quarter of 2006. Its Stock Trends RSI is 112, ahead of the Dow Jones Transports and the Russel 2000 - at 110 and 107 respectively. Notably, the price momentum of the 10-year Treasury Index is above the Short-term Interest Rate Index, confirming the correction away from the inverted yield curve scenario. Not surprisingly, interest rate sensitive utility stocks are suffering, as Dow Jones Utility Index ranks at the bottom of the U.S. Stock Trends RSI ranking. See:

http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/indexes/?indexgrp=U&weekdate=2006-04-07&order=rsi

China on my mind

No question: China is still hot with investors. The safe route for many is to buy country ETFs, and many are making their play on China's economic ascendancy by buying PowerShares Golden Dragon USX China E.T.F. (AMEX: PGJ). Last week 2.1-million shares traded as the ETF powered to a 52-week high. PGJ has kept up the bullish price move this week and is gaining more ground. The current price is $16.87.

Institutions feelin' good about the TSX

A good measure of the growing institutional interest in the iUnits S&P/TSX 60 Index exchange-traded-fund (TEX:XIU) is the weekly average traded value Stock Trends calculates. Last week was an especially important week as trading volume for XIU was exceptionally high - Relative Volume hit 11% and over $929-million of shares traded. Much of this activity was institutional. Average traded value of XIU last week approached $350,000 - much higher than its normal level. Today's activity takes XIU ever closer to $70, spurred on by general bullishness about the resource-heavy TSX. Investors - big and small - are betting that XIU has plenty of leg left in its bullish trend.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=XIU-T

Domtar blossoms

Although today was a bit of a downer, several forestry stocks are pulling out of their winter blues. Most fetching is Tembec (TSX:TBC) and Domtar (TSX:DTC). Both stocks are currently rallying out of long-term bearish trends and have been highlighted as Stock Trends Weak Bearish stocks for several weeks. Domtar outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite by 11% in the first quarter, but much of the gains have come in the last month. Today's weakness may be a good opportunity to pick up DTC, as the stock fell with the market.


http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=DTC-T

TSX Bullish sentiment firm

The Bull/Bear ratio on the Toronto Stock Exchange has reached 2.04, with 55% of trending stocks currently labelled as Stock Trends Strong Bullish. Nevertheless, the past two years the peaks of bullish sentiment were reached in the March. The coming months may present some cautious spring winds.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stbvb&x=T

Steel stocks press on

Trading activity in Algoma Steel (TSX:AGA) was high this past week. Steel stocks continue to press north, with AGA out-performing the market by 32% over the past quarter. Industry consolidation factors into the market's buying pressure. Certainly, IPSCO Inc's (TSX:IPS) has set an impressive standard: it leads the S&P/TSX 60 stocks in 2006 performance and continues to reach new highs. Nevertheless, AGA traded much more actively this week in terms of Relative Volume and the Stock Trends Unusual Volume alert makes the stock especially interesting. Current price is $32.49.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=AGA-T&page=streport

 

Smith & Wesson shoots first

The past year has been a ride for Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (AMEX: SWB), but investors are starting to holster-up in the stock again. The stock hit a high of $6.22 today - not too far off its peak of $6.96 a year ago...before it misfired. SWB has rallied nicely in 2006. Its Stock Trends RSI has climbed to 147, and the stock has been a Stock Trends Pick of the Week for the past two weeks.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=SWB-A

 

Marginal utilities

The poorest performing TSX sector in the first quarter of 2006 has been the utilities. The 13-week Stock Trends RSI for the S&P/TSX Utilities Index is 86. This sub-market performance relates significantly to the rising interest rate environment. Indicative of the weakness is the performance of TransAlta (TA-T), Fortis (FTS-T), and Canadian Utilities (CU.NV-T).

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=TA-T

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=CU.NV-T

More Hanfeng with your rice?

Hangfeng Evergreen (HF-T) rallies above $4 today on strong volume. HF has been advancing over the past few weeks. Today's material news:

 

TORONTO, March 23 /CNW/ - Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. ("Hanfeng" or the "Company") has entered into a Letter of Intent with the China National Hybrid Rice R&D Center (the "Center") for a program of field trials and marketing of Hanfeng's Sulfur Coated Urea (SCU) slow-release fertilizer in China's main rice growing regions. The field testing will focus on measuring and recording the effectiveness of SCU to increase rice crop yield and quality. This ground- breaking cooperation is headed by world-renowned scientist, Dr. Yuan Longping, Director of the Center, and revered throughout the developing world as the "Father of Hybrid Rice".

 

HF has been a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holding since January 26.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=HF-T

Increased volume for SunOpta

SunOpta Inc (SOY-T) has been a Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holding since January 19, but this week marks an important elevation of interest in this stock. Yesterday the company's chairman presided over the opening bell at the NASDAQ, celebrating its February listing on the exchange. The additional profile helped stir trading in the stock as it climbed to a high of $9.66 on the TSX (US$8.30 on NASDAQ where it trades as STKL-Q).

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=SOY-T

Clean Air popular, but off highs

A top performing U.S. exchange traded fund is Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio - PWB (http://www.powershares.com/pbwfund.asp ), which has outperformed the S&P 500 by 18% over the past 13-weeks. PWB stock holdings include Zoltek Cos (ZOLT), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Suntech Power Holdings (STP), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), and Ormat Technologies (ORA). PWB has fallen off its 52-week high ($21.13) in recent weeks and closed today at $19.75.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=PBW-A

 

Canadian small caps gushing

The top performing Canadian index this year has been The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index. It has a 13-week Stock Trends Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) of 113 - telling us that it has out-performed the senior TSX by 13%. The NASDAQ Canada Index, also indicative of Canadian small cap performance, is runner-up with an RSI of 109.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/stonline/indexes/?indexgrp=C&weekdate=2006-03-16&order=rsi

Favrille treatment

After scaling to a 52-week high last week, bio-pharmeceutical stock FVRL closed at $6.63. Recent insider buying is of note (2.1-million shares), but volume in Favrille Inc's stock picked up considerably last week. The stock is back near its high today, trading at $7.50 at midday.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=FVRL-Q

 

 

Bullish sentiment still in place

Stock Trends barometer of investor sentiment remains bullish. Although the general tone of the marketplace seems tentative, with analysts split on the prognosis for stocks in 2006, the current trend situation is favourable. The Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio measures the aggregate distribution of stocks with Stock Trend indicators. These indicators switch between Bullish and Bearish when the secondary trend line and the primary trend line of individual stocks (and indices) intersect. A Bullish stock has its 13-week average price above its 40-week average price. Conversely, a Bearish stock has its 13-week average price below its 40-week average price. More recent price movement dictates the trend indicator.

Currently, the Stock Trends Bull/Bear Ratio for North American markets remains strong:

Bull/Bear Ratio
TSX 1.84
NYSE 1.50
AMEX 1.83
NASDAQ 1.59

See: http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=stbvb&x=T

Nucor

The top performing Dow Jones industry group in 2006 is... steel! And despite the fact that most of the group did poorly this past week, Nucor Group (NUE) hit another 52-week high, closing up 8.3% at $95.08. However, today's open above $96 was followed by profit-taking as the stock dropped by $3 in afternoon trading. Keep an eye on trading in the steel group as a top forms for many of these high flying industrial stocks.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=NUE-N&page=streport

Boeing cruises

Also hitting a 52-week high, BA remains stuck under the $75 level. The stock has developed resistance here, so a move above $75 would be telling. BA is in week 141 of its bullish trend, and has the longest bull trend of all the Dow Jones Industrial stocks. This week's Barron's cover story detailing Boeing's turnaround and resurgence over the last five years paints a positive picture for Boeing and its battle with Airbus. Look for the BA bullish trend to continue.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=BA-N&page=streport

Proctor & Gamble continues to clean up

Hitting a new 52-week high this week, PG has performed well since its Bullish Crossover on September 9. The stock has advanced 9.4% as the bullish trend has developed. This consumer stock is out-performing the S&P 500 by 7% over the last 13-weeks.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=PG-N&page=streport

General Motors

The top performing Dow Jones Industrial stock this past week was GM - up 12.6%. Although GM is a Newly Weak Bearish stock, this price advance is not sufficient enough to stem the current bearish sentiment. This stock has much work to do before the market will give its blessing.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=GM-N&page=streport

Kodak moment

Another consumer stock that has had a long stay on the Bear train, Eastman Kodak, has elevated itself into Stock Trends Pick of the Week report. About a year ago EK peaked at the $35 level and then lost investor support as it plunged. Hitting bottom in October at nearly $20, EK has fought back from concerns it is not up to the challenges of the digital era. Its intermediate trend has been developing in the early months of 2006, and EK is a Bullish Crossover and Pick of the Week currently.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=EK-N&page=streport

Consumers stocks stand to attention

A host of other consumer stocks are lighting up our trend alert filters. The Picks of the Week report includes the like of Federated Department Stores (FD), Del Monte (DLM), HJ Heinz (HNZ), Estee Lauder (EL), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Verizon Communications (VZ). So perhaps investors are not taking such a negative view of the prospects for the U.S. consumer.

Krispy Kreme warming up

Closing at $7.95 on Friday, up $1.38 on the week, KKD traded heavy volume following the announcement that a former Kraft Foods executive will take the helm at troubled Krispy Kreme. KKD has been steadily recovering from 4^th quarter lows (late October, $3.91), and has been a Weak Bearish stock most of the last three months. Nevertheless, Krispe Kreme is on a short leash with the NYSE, and must comply with its required filings as its listing extension deadline (April 30) draws near. The market seems to think a new master will put things in order. KKD was nearly a $50 stock three years ago, but if investors can put that history behind and look at the possible trend change at work, the opportunity for trading profit comes - at some level of risk. A Bullish Crossover is predicted for the coming week, this coinciding with the closure - perhaps - the new CEO hopes to usher in.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=KKD-N

Hanfeng is fertile

One of the current Stock Trends TSX Portfolio holdings, Hanfeng Evergreen (HF), advanced over  9% today after very positive earnings were announced. The stock closed at its high of $3.55 today. The Stock Trends Portfolio picked up HF in late January.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=HF-T

 

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) recovery

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) has rallied from its fourth quarter '05 lows of $7.63 and is now trading near $14. Currently a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock, HGSI has developed a strong enough intermediate trend to be on our stock watch. If it moves through resistance at $14, expect price momentum to carry the stock higher yet.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=HGSI-Q

Heavy machinery moves

The best performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Index is Caterpillar (CAT). It has out-performed the broad market by 25% in the past quarter. But other heavy machinery stocks are moving, too. Last week was positive for these bullish stocks: CAT up 2.6%, JLG Industries (JLG) up 7.1%,  and CNH Global (CNH) up 5.1%. Deere & Co. (DE) is trading very near its 52-week high, as well. The best performers over the past 13-weeks are Manitowoc (MTW) which is up 48% in the past 13-weeks, and CNH up 50% over the period. CNH has been a Stock Trends Pick of the Week for the past three weeks and is currently a Bullish Crossover stock.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=CNH-N

Zarlink Semiconductor hits new high

Over 4.8 million shares of Zarlink Semiconductor (ZL) traded today - the stock moving above resistance at $2.80 as it reached a new high of $2.88. ZL has been on a bullish trend since last autumn, currently a Stock Trends Bullish stock with an 13-week RSI of 123. Today's positive move signals a continuation of the trend.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=ZL-T

ShawCor pick

Energy services stocks are hot again. ShawCor Ltd. (SCL.SV.A) is one of the Stock Trends Picks of the Week as it has rallied strongly off of its lows in late 2005. This changing trend makes SCL.SV.A a Stock Trends Weak Bearish stock. The Relative Strength Indicator is now 112, and will be improving should today's positive move above resistance at $18.50 hold. Volume has been strong, so look for continued price momentum and a new bullish trend.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=SCL.SV.A-T

Golden Star Resources advances on low volume

Golden Star Resources (GSC) advanced 5.3% last week on low volume. GSC has a Stock Trends Weak Bearish trend, with a Bullish Crossover anticipated this coming week. While low trading volume is normally a cause for concern with bullish trending stocks, it can signal an important shift in bullish sentiment for stocks in bearish trends that are advancing off support levels. The stock is up again today, currently trading at $3.88.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=GSC-T

CIBC tests resistance

CIBC (CM) has failed to gain much traction since its rally off of its lows back in the autumn. It has tested resistance at the $81 level earlier in the year, but the move today to a new 52-week high at $81.75 offers traders another cue. Should CM move significantly through this level the prospects for its bullish trend would improve.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=CM-T

Canaccord's graduating performance

Financial stocks have done well recently. Many of the big banks are making 52-week highs on the TSX, but a relative new-comer to the TSX stage is steadily gaining an audience of investors. Canaccord Capital (CCI) is a major independent Canadian retail brokerage house, and its stock has been on a solid bullish trend since last September. Currently trading at $17.50, CCI has advanced 61% since its Stock Trends Bullish Crossover signal. It was a Pick of the Week on August 25 at $10.70. Although the stock is off its 52-week high ($18.95), CCI is outpacing the Toronto market by 12% in the past 13-weeks. Perhaps ahead: inclusion in the S&P/TSX Composite Index?

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=CCI-T&page=streport

AMEX moves

The American Stock Exchange Composite Index (AMEX) is out-performing the S&P/500 Composite Index by 6% over the past 3-months. It advanced another 1% this past week thanks to activity in some of the the exchange's precious metal stocks. But the AMEX is also home to many of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) that investors are increasingly trading. Leading the AMEX ETF's this week was the iShares S&P/TOPIX Index Fund (ITF), which is a basket of Japanese stocks. ITF advanced 3.4% and has a Stock Trends Bullish indicator with an RSI of 109.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=ITF-A

Disney trend turns bullish

The intermediate trend line of Walt Disney Corp (DIS) has moved above the primary long term trend line, signalling a Stock Trends bullish trend. DIS has advanced 22% since the October low, closing on Friday at $27.98. The stock is out-performing the S&P 500 by 10% over the past 13-weeks. February's advance has been especially strong. This week's Stock Trends Bullish Crossover signals a good entry point for long-term investors, regardless of the rally's current maturity.

Western Silver bonanza

No sooner does Glamis Gold (GLG) enter the honoured ranks of the S&P/TSX 60 index, then it stirs up the mix for all those portfolio managers who have to pick up the stock for their funds. Today's announced $1.2-billion buyout offer for Western Silver (WTC) adds some spice. Glamis means to go big, and the market will have to digest this quickly. GLG is off 4% post-announcement today.

But for WTC shareholders the buyout offers a nice premium. WTC was a Stock Trends Pick of the Week in early December when it traded at $12.02, and it had a Bullish Crossover on December 22. Today's big pop to $24.61 reminds us that consolidation is going to be a factor in the sector.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=WTC-T

Real Estate advances

The top performing stocks in the S&P/TSX Real Estate Index continue to move forward. Real estate stocks are up 2.5% this past week. Leading the group is Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust (BEI.UN) which is at a 52-week high today. It is outperforming the TSX by 8% over the last 13-weeks. Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (REF.UN) advanced 6.6% last week. The relative performance of the sector is reflected by the fact that the iUnits S&P/TSX Real Estate Index ETF (XRE) has had positive moves for 6 of the 8 trading weeks to-date in 2006.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=XRE-T

 

Telecom calls

The big telecom stocks have moved well over the past month or so. AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), BellSouth (BLS), and Sprint Nextel (S) have been garnering price momentum. All had good moves last week. The Telecom Holdrs (TTH) exchange traded fund is good basket to trade this group. It is at a 52-week high after advancing 4.6% last week.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=TTH-A&page=streport

Fedex back near 52-week high

Fedex Corp. (FDX) was the best performing stock in the DJ Transport index this past week. Closing just below its 52-week high, FDX advanced amid the drop in crude oil prices and an announced quarterly dividend.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=FDX-N&page=streport

Eastman Kodak develops trend

The digital age has been tough on Eastman Kodak, and it's stock has suffered for it. EK has been a Bearish stock for 41-weeks, but the current price momentum has taken it back to a level that alerts us of a change in trend. Perhaps investors have decided not to write EK off yet. Let's see how this intermediate trend develops.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=EK-N

Loosing weight - WTW

Spurred by positive news on the earnings and dividend front, trading in Weight Watchers International (WTW) was heavy. The stock advanced 11.6%, closing at $52.79, and became a Weak Bearish stock. However, expect some resistance at this level - losing market weight isn't easy.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=WTW-N

Time to Google "Sell"

Despite the positive move this morning, Google (GOOG) is in the Stock Trends dog house. The stock originally turned Weak Bullish on January 20, although it bounced back the following week enough to turn briefly back to our Bullish category. It is now in the Weak Bullish category and the share price is approaching the 40-week moving average. Clearly, the Google bears are coming out, and the magical ride this stock has enjoyed since its original listing has come to an end. It is time to bail...or buy. Buyers are doing so at high risk, as articles like the one in Barron's on the weekend point out. For trend-following traders, though, the picture is clear: it's time to sell.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=GOOG-Q

Media stock revives

Thomson Corp (TOC) closed in positive territory today, despite a rough morning. TOC is a Newly Weak Bearish stock thanks to a solid performance last week - up 4.8%. Look for the stock to build price momentum in coming sessions.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=TOC-T

A best buy

Amid the weakness in high-flyin' gold and energy stocks, some consumer stocks have stood their ground. Today's trading in Best Buy (BBY-N) reminds us that the underlying economy is still strong. Strong volume and an 8% advance in share price is always worth noting, but this strong bullish stock is also testing resistance at its 52-week high. Watch for movement past $53.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?page=streport&symbol=BBY-N

 

 

Shaw Communications continues rally

Shaw Communications (SJR.NV.B) advanced 5% on heavy volume last week, continuing its $5 rally from its autumn lows. SJR.NV.B is one of Stock Trends Bullish Crossover stocks this week, as the 13-week moving average has penetrated above the 40-week moving average - our indicator that the long-term trend is now bullish. Shaw is outperforming its peers, with a 13-week Relative Strength Indicator of 106. Rogers Communications (RCI.NV.B), by comparison, has an RSI of 94. Although Rogers has been in a bullish trend for 68-weeks, Shaw is now righting its ship and setting the sails.

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=SJR.NV.B&page=streport

Heavy trading on TSX

As the S&P/TSX Composite Index flirts with 12,000, investors are trading at a frenzied pace. In the past 5 trading days over 2-billion shares have exchanged hands. This is a level unseen yet - even in the frothy days of 2000. Over 1.8-million transactions were logged in, so the Canadian investor is hungry for more profits.

 

The current Stock Trends TSX Bull/Bear ratio is 1.4, with 54% of trending stocks labelled as strong bullish.

Altera tests resistance at $20

The Philadelphia Semiconductor sector (SOXX) index has been strong the past two months, with last week's 7.4% gain reminding us that semiconductor industry is a hot place to be. Today was another positive move for the SOXX, with all but two in positive territory. Big movers last week like Broadcom Corp (BRCM) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) joined Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as stellar performers in the group. But the best performer today was Altera Corp (ALTR), with a 4.3% gain closing at $20.13. ALTR has a Weak Bearish Stock Trends indicator and a strong RSI (110), so it is a stock we can focus on. The resistance level at $20 is established, so a solid move above $20 would be a very positive sign. The sector strength will help ALTR move through this resistance.

 

http://www.stocktrends.ca/?symbol=ALTR&page=streport